Standing on the Corner

I always try to listen to Terry Francona when given the chance, and today is no different. While listening to my favorite morning show, Dale & Holley, on WEEI I was hearing Tito profess his undying love (alright so I'm a smidge hyperbolic) for Casey Kotchman. And like the cynic I am, I started thinking about who the 1^st baseman should be, not whom it probably will be. There has been a lot of talk about big names like Adrian Gonzalez or Miguel Cabrera, but there is a Player X that could be intriguing as well. Here's some numbers for you:

	Adrian Gonzalez	Miguel Cabrera	Player X
Age	27	26	26
Contract	4.75mil in 2010	20 mil in 2010	Near Minimum
Batting Average	.277	.324	.322
Runs Batted In	99	103	84
Home Runs	40	34	25
On-Base %	.407	.396	.414
Fielding %	.995	.995	.991

Adrian Gonzalez is an elite player and with an affordable contract. Clearly the Red Sox aren't the ONLY team he's drawing interest from, and because of his salary this could be a player that creates a massive bidding war. But in acquiring him we will have to give up a lot (I'm not talking to you Clay), and he's worth EVERY Buch, or Ellsbury for that matter. See what I did there? He hit 40 HR's in the statistically worst ballpark to hit in, and if he was at Fenway he would probably hit 50 dingers, and drive in 100 RBI's for the foreseeable future. Adrian Gonzalez gets on base at a Youk-esque pace, and his defense makes him the most comparable player to Mark Teixiera. With Jed Hoyer asking for a boatload of talent, and rightfully so, it's going to be a tough sell for the San Diego fanbase so if you want this player you need to come big. To obtain him you will be looking at Buchholz, Ellsbury, Kotchman, and a PTBNL. It's steep but if you want that power 1B at an affordable price, that's the price of greatness. (I'd do it in a heartbeat by the way.)

Miguel Cabrera is the next coming (albeit a portly version) of Manny Ramirez. He hit 34 home runs in an atrocious hitter's ballpark and the only player of the 3 that drove in 100 runs. Of course when you obtain a bat like this there is some risk. The first of which is the domestic abuse. That's going to be a tough thing to sell to the Boston fans/Media and in the wake of the Tiger Woods saga (by the way, kudos for plowing Jessica Simpson) any sort of blip in the radar is going to get magnified 10,000 times more in Beantown than Motown or FLA. Second is the alcoholism. For someone that is supposed to be a leader (or atleast his contract says that) going out on a bender the night before the biggest game of the year isn't going to fly here. Third is one of the 7 deadly sins, Gluttony. He started as a shortstop but 6 years and 50 tacos per sitting later he's sitting 60 lbs heavier and at first base. Lastly, the big market move. Boston, like the other "big markets", is a media frenzy, every move you make is scrutinized, and every game has a playoff atmosphere, so he's going to need to make better life decisions. But when you look at a player like this while being this young, you have to think that he is one of the handful of players that hits for power and average. One of the surprising things for me, when I looked at these stats was that Miggy's FPCT was actually the same as Gonzalez. Because of his behemoth contract, and the declining economy, Detroit may be forced to get rid of their much maligned superstar and it will NOT be as pricey as Gonzalez. But since shedding payroll in the blockbuster that got rid of Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson they may not need to at all. Buchholz is the Centerpiece to ANY trade for a big bat, but you're looking at Buchholz, Kotchman, and either Josh Reddick or Ryan Kalish. OR in another trade Scenario you could trade Papelbon, Kotchman and one of your pitchers with upside in the minors. Either way they benefit greatly from it.

If you couldn't figure out by the stats Player X is Joey Votto. Joey Votto will be at or around the league minimum for the next 3 years before he becomes arbitration eligible. You may think, "25 HRs, that's not that much", but last year he lost his father and spent time away from the team and because of that, suffered some anxiety attacks. So you could prognosticate that his stats would have been closer to 30 and 100 rather than 25 and 85. His on-base % puts him in the top 10% of baseball players in that regard, and he's only going to get better. One thing working in any acquiring team's favor is that he is borderline expendable on the Reds right now. The #1 prospect in their farm system Yonder Alonso is ready for the bigs and (Surprise, surprise) he's a 1B. His defense isn't as good statistically as the others but still could develop a little more in that aspect. You could get him for Buchholz and a Bowden with a lower level PTBNL.

Hope this helps all you aspiring GM's out there. The way I look at it is that Gonzalez is a pipe dream but I wouldn't hold your breath. Cabrera is more likely than Gonzalez but all of the off-field issues should raise a red flag, but damn can this kid rake. Joey Votto is an up and comer that really would make sense in all facets of the game for the Red Sox and would seem to make even more sense than the studs like Cabrera and Gonzalez. Just sayin, ya'll.

Stay Tuned

Ryan