What started off a normal Monday, culminated into the biggest day for Hot Stove talk in this 2009 offseason. Let's recap:
- Red Sox sign John Lackey (5 years 85 mil)
- Red Sox sign Mike Cameron to 2 year 15.5 mil deal
- Red Sox exploring extension for Josh Beckett
- Roy Halladay is traded in 3 team blockbuster to the Phillies, get's extension.
- Phillies trade Cliff Lee to Mariners for prospects
- Angels sign Hideki Matsui 6.5 mil-1 year deal
Might as well come right out and say it; Theo Epstein you sly dog. You had me thinking you were going to go for the bargain basement, and you flip it on its ear and pony up the dough for the best starting pitcher on the market. We now have 3 number 1/1A/1B to combat the endless assault in the Yankees Lineup. As the old adage says: "Good Pitching beats good hitting". This signing is in my estimation a precursor to a number of things. It gives the Red Sox leverage in the extension talks with Josh Beckett. Beckett doesn't want to go anywhere and now he is on a team that is so pitching rich that a 3 game losing streak is ALMOST impossible. This should ensure the highest level of competition for the next 5 years, but Beckett is going to get his money. And according to the Baseball Almanac his most comparable player, John Lackey. It isn't out of the realm of possibility that they give out a duplicate deal to Lackey's to Beckett and have a rotation headed by Lester for the next 4+ years. On the other side of the coin its protection. It's protection if Beckett pulls a Jason Bay and overestimates his value and wants more money than what he's worth. This could make him expendable. I love the move. Grade: A+
The Mike Cameron signing is puzzling to me to say the least. He is as predictable as baseball players come putting up 18-25 HRs every year with a .250 average and the BEST defensive Centerfielder in baseball for the last 10 years (aside from a healthy Ken Griffey Jr.). While I guess he would presumably provide what Mike Lowell would provide offensively, I don't think you get the full effect of Cameron without putting him in Centerfield. This is a sign that one of two things is going to happen: EITHER Ellsbury is getting moved to left, or he's getting traded. I'm going to lean towards him moving over to left but the prospect of him leaving is definitely in the vicinity. *I smell a prediction, more to come.* We're also paying him 15.5 over two years that is a bit alarming. Grade: B- solely because of defense, but that's just me.
As soon as I heard about Lackey becoming the newest member of the Local 9, I heard that they were looking into the cost of retaining Beckett for a few more years. This to me is the right move to do, not necessarily to re-sign him, but to see how much it would cost to keep him in Beantown. If they can keep him under their control and coupled with Lester and Lackey they will have the best rotation since Smoltz, Maddux, and Glavine. And would surely put them in competition if not a strangle hold on the top spot in the AL East for the next 5 years. Extremely smart business decision. Grade: A
Not only am I floored that Roy Halladay didn't get traded in the AL East, but he is now out of the League as a whole and is pitching in the NL. That is almost a guarantee of 3-4 more victories per year. But looking at this objectively I fail to see how this makes Philadelphia decidedly better than they were with Cliff Lee. But the three team deal is more of a money thing than people realize. The Phillies very well could have kept Cliff Lee this year in a "win now" mode but they would have only been able to recoup draft picks, instead they pick up some prospects from the Mariners to replenish their farm that was just emptied to Toronto. As great as Halladay is though, are the Phillies that much over the top with Halladay I don't see it. Not only that he just signed a 3 year 60 million dollar deal with 2 vesting options. Yowza, lots of money. They should have kept Cliff Lee then they are 100% the best team in the NL now the jury is still out and I'm very indifferent about this trade. Grade C-
The Mariners are the ultimate winners in this three team trade. They now have the BEST 1-2 punch in baseball with King Felix and Cliff "I railroaded your mother" Lee. This along with the signing of Chone Figgins makes this team the clear cut favorite for me to win the AL West and I think the Angels just successfully took 3rd place behind the Rangers who along with a resurgent Rich Harden are going to get 2nd place. Grade: A+
The Angels signing Godzilla spells the end of Vladdy in Anaheim. Not much to say, replacing one has been with another. Grade: D
Prediction Time:
Ellsbury is gone. Buchholz is gone. And because Ellsbury is going to be in this deal you won't have to give up Kelley or Bard, but most likely you will give up Westmoreland OR Kalish. But who's the bat that Theo is coveting right now? I've got a brainbuster for you, and I think it's Justin Morneau. It would be ill-advised for Jed Hoyer to make his first move: getting rid of the most beloved San Diego-an (said in my Ron Burgundy voice) especially when he isn't that expensive right now. Justin Morneau makes sense because of the impending Free-Agency of Joe Mauer whom as good as Morneau is Mauer is head and shoulders better. They could get a slew of youthful, affordable players and be able to sign Joe Mauer to the contract that he wants.
Stay Tuned
Ryan
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