Hot Stove Speculation

Earlier today I was perusing the Boston Globe and came to the new section called Slugfests. Some joker told me that there may be grumblings of the Sox offering Ellsbury, Lowrie, and Bowden to the Pirates for Nate McLouth and Freddy Sanchez/Jack Wilson (the latter part of the deal being an interchangeable piece). At first I laughed hysterically at this ludicrous idea, followed by a "biff" to my own head pretending it was this numbskull (hindsight says I probably shouldn't hit myself when thinking someone else is stupid), and rounded up by thinking Holy S Batman, this trade is a stroke of Genius.


Pittsburgh has been a struggling franchise for the better part of 15 years now and they are still a rebuilding team looking for more pitching and cheap hitting youth. They need to unload some of the salary that they have taken on and the Red Sox seem to be the perfect fit to take on those obligations. McLouth is coming off of what could be the start of a brilliant career and although doesn't have quite the same explosive speed as Ellsbury still plays a gold glove calibur Center Field, will hit more HR's from the leadoff spot (with essentially the Same OBP) and still stole more than 20 bags last year.

Now I know all you Ellsbury/Sox fanatics are going to cut my nuts off for saying this but Ellsbury will never be as dynamic as he was during that '07 stretch run. I personally am a HUGE fan of his style of play but his OBP is ranked among the worst for leadoff men in the majors. Yes he can steal bases but his stolen base% (82) is just under the 85% quota that you want a franchise base stealer to sit.

For the last 6 + years Shortstop has been a rotating black hole for the Red Sox and Epstein regime. This year is no different. While Green has been a pleasant surprise his glove made of Gold (not to be confused with a "gold glove") has cost us a few games. I'm not even going to field Julio Lugo questions or concerns.Lowrie is a very good defensive player and although I applaud him for his stoicism during last years pennant race for playing through injuries I'm not sure he's a long term solution for the Red Sox at short. He's probably best served as a Super Utility ala Mark DeRosa. Sanchez and Wilson are as SOLID as they come defensively. Sanchez is batting a hearty .325 while Wilson has seen has Batting Average rise his last 8 games after a sluggish start and a stint on the DL. The ONLY problem I see with Sanchez coming to play SS for a Big Market Boston team is that he hasn't played there more than 28 times in a year in all of his Major League Career.

If I'm Pittsburgh (or if this trade goes through we'll start calling them a farm team for the Red Sox) I want more than just Ellsbury and damaged goods (Lowrie) for 2 potential game changers. This is why Bowden MUST be in the mix. Let's face it Bowden is VERY expendable with some of the pitchers coming up in Free Agency this coming off-season and being the 2nd best SP prospect in the organization. The "Burgh" which is what I'm going to call it for lack of a cooler name needs young pitching and that is something the Red Sox have a plethora of.

So here's what I (the most IMPORTANT GM not in the game) see when looking at this trade.
Ellsbury (++Speed, +Defense, +Steals)
Lowrie (+Defense)
Bowden (+command, composure)

McLouth (+Defense, Steals Speed)
Sanchez (+Defense, +Avg)
Wilson (+Defense, won Silver Slugger 2004)
Not so much baseball related stats are that Pittsburgh, as previously stated, needs to lower payroll to cope with a tough economy AND lack of fan support. We have cash to take on some more contracts and the pitching that a franchise like the Buc's need for future success. This also STILL enables us to utilize the L-R-L lineup if we batted McLouth Pedroia (Drew, Ortiz, or someone else that can actually hit the ball from the Left side.) The versatility that comes with Sanchez AND McLouth is also something that Theo covets. I hate to say it Red Sox fans but if this deal comes to fruition it seems to make baseball sense!

Stay Tuned

Ryan