What Happens Now?

Every one of the Red Sox weaknesses became exposed in October, and this offseason it is Theo Epstein’s job to rectify this conundrum. There will be two approaches to the offseason, Tweaks or All-out. The Red Sox regime, although a very good group of ballplayers, is getting old. This is something that needs to be addressed. I'm of the feeling that they are going to go with the All-Out approach after the piss poor showing the latter half of the season.

The first pressing topic is Left Field. Jason Bay’s end of the year stats were very good but, to me, misleading. By this I mean that he had more ups and downs than a Jenna Jameson flick. His defense is average and his arm is below that. The best all-around option IS Matt Holliday. Don’t look at that one “glaring” crotch shot error as an end all to free-agent discussions with him. This season was his first year outside of the Mile High Air AND he had to adjust to ALL new pitching in the American League. He is almost 2 years younger than Jason Bay and Fenway Park would pay HUGE dividends to his swing. Bay is going to command too much after just hitting a career number of homers and the Mariners or Yankees can have him. Holliday could come cheaper (albeit not much) because of his drop-off in production. But look for him to have a hefty rebound year next year with whomever he signs with.

Ready for a bold statement? Jonathan Papelbon WILL NOT be a Boston Red Sox in 2010. While some stats this year were better than his previous bests, his BB/9 ratio skyrocketed. His over-reliance on his fastball mixed with more baserunners via the walk spells out more trouble to come for him in the late innings. That is something that we can/could ill afford this past season and will not be able to deal with going forward. I expect some sort of 3-way deal, but more on that in a moment.

With Mike Lowell literally having the range of the 2009 version of Cecil Fielder, he is another person we are going to HAVE to sever ties with for the upcoming season. The Sox should kick the tires on Chone Figgins but I see them wanting power for their corner spots, not speed. That being said, look for the Adrian Gonzalez rumors to be “a-swirlin”. This is where the 3-Team trade comes in. After showcasing that Michael Bowden is best served as a batting practice pitcher, he is no longer a commodity so we’re going to have to go a different route. Here’s my Scenario:

Red Sox Get: Adrian Gonzalez

Rangers Get: Jonathan Papelbon

Padres Get: Mike Lowell, Clay Buchholz, Casey Kelley and Justin Smoak

Smoak has been highly touted as one of the best hitters to most likely enter ‘The Bigs’ in 2010, even drawing comparisons to Mark Teixeira. But did I just say Clay Buchholz? Indeed I did.

I’m going to give Buchholz his due and say he exceeded my expectations in October. With that, he is the piece of the puzzle that will get the deal done. With the Padres trading Jake Peavy to the suddenly deep-pocketed Chicago White Sox, the Padres will need another impact arm for years to come. Insert Clay Buchholz.

But what does that mean for the rotation? GREAT QUESTION! The Red Sox, of late, have been into reclamation projects. I see them doing this all over again. Hang on don’t get your under garments in an uproar, this time they SHOULD go after someone worth the commitment. Rich Harden’s name has already been thrown around, and while I would welcome him to the rotation there are two others that I think the Red Sox should look at. Brandon Webb and Ben Sheets. Brandon Webb is one of the top pitchers’ in Baseball when healthy and with Arizona not able to take on much payroll, his raise may not be coming for him there and he could be the perfect fit for a Boston team already riddled with starting pitching. Ben Sheets hasn’t thrown in what will be a year and a half come spring training But, he is a horse when healthy (threw 237 inn. ’04) and has a career ERA of 3.73. He is basically a more headstrong version of AJ Burnett, with just as filthy stuff to match.

It was a Tale of Two Seasons for David Ortiz this year. Many times when we were about to write him off he’d hit a game-winning, clutch RBI to remind him why he is the GREATEST CLUTCH HITTER of our generation. As Theo said, “When Ortiz is a force, we’re a different team.” The question now is, can he be that force? I’m not sure. There will be oodles of internal talk just as there was when another Boston icon left, to see if our Big Papi can still hack it. If Tito tells our GM that he’s cooked than you can expect Adam Dunn on our team for obvious reasons.

All of those preceding moves, I actually expect to happen. But there is something that I have been concocting in my mind for a while and that is the dilemma with the shortstop position. This one is 100% going to sound far-fetched but its plausible atleast, so I have that going for me. The Mets back in ’06 signed their dynamic SS to a 4-year deal and while he is a very good offensive player his defense is average at best. The Mets (although bitten by the injury bug) were god-awful in the field in 2009. Now would be an ideal time for them to dangle Reyes to sure up the club defensively. This is where the Red Sox could step in and offer an Ellsbury and Alex Gonzalez in return. HE SAID WHAT?!?! This would essentially balance out financially and the Mets would fortify their club defensively in NOT JUST 1 position but 2. Not to mention the Red Sox would replace their stolen base threat with another. But who plays center you ask? The ONLY way you make this deal is if you can definitely sign Carl Crawford.

So here’s my final product:

Actual-
Ellsbury

Pedroia

Martinez

Gonzalez

Holliday

Youkilis

Ortiz

Drew

Gonzalez

Fantasy-

Reyes

Pedroia
Martinez

Gonzalez

Holliday

Youkilis

Dunn

Drew

Crawford

Are some of my predictions crazy? Abso-fricken-lutely! But in 2004 who here thought we would trade our sure fire Hall of Famer and the face of our franchise? I didn’t and I know damn well you didn’t either. The Shortstop situation IS a bit of a stretch but if anyone can pull it off it’s Theo Epstein and Co.

Stay Tuned

Ryan