A co-worker just asked me whom I thought would be more likely to win 20 games this year: Wakefield or Beckett. To me this is a no brainer but to a lesser fan is a legitimate question given the phenomenal start that the two of them have had.
While Wakefield is having a good year (not great, great would be his 1995 start when he opened the year 14-1), history would say he's going to fizzle. The knuckleball has a history of dazzling for 4-5 game stings and then tumbling (not good for a knuckleball) for 4-5 game stints. Also, this would be the first year in 3 years that he has made it through an entire season if he makes it through without injury.
My prediction for Wakefield is that he will top out at around 16-17 wins. Let me be clear that is a FINE season. That being said he could completely defy all odds and win 20 games. At 42, and still effective, he's defying odds every time he toes the rubber. If Wakefield does win 20 games, AND lowers his ERA into the 3's he could also be looking at some hardware (Cy Young Award) come seasons end.
Josh Beckett or "Commander Kick Ass" as my friends over at Surviving Grady call him. Has he ever lived up to that name this season or what? Josh is flat out DOMINATING teams right now. Despite the hiccup in Philly a while back and that one bad inning in Baltimore you don't get much more "Ace-like" than what this Texan is doing right now. He earned his 10th win last night, and I don't see any problem here on out with him making a run for 20.
The reason Beckett gets the nod is that he is younger, healthier, and has better stuff. Not to take anything away from what Wake is doing but Beckett is unconscious right now when he steps out on the mound. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that barring an injury (oblique, I swear to god if you come back…) he's going to win 21 games this year. Hoping that Greinke gives up more than 1 run in his next 15 stars (might be a tall task) he could be en route to his first Cy Young award as well.
THE OTHER WATER COOLER HOT TOPIC TODAY IS: ROY HALLADAY ON THE TRADING BLOCK!
Now, how imposing would this be in a 5 or hell a 7 game series in October. Roy Halladay, Josh Beckett, Jon Lester. *nervous giggle* That is almost a guaranteed World Series right there. So what's the holdup? Theo Epstein has a history of holding onto his young talent especially when it comes down to trading for a big name (see: Johan Santana).
What would it take to get Halladay? Well, you can start with Buchholz AND Bowden. That's essentially two high draft picks. Then you're going to need upside players which the Red Sox have. Someone like Nick Hagadone could be thrown in. Prior to his Tommy John surgery he was throwing 97 from the left side and mowing down the opposition. Another player may be a Lars Anderson. He is ranked in the top 5 prospects in the Sox organization that would give them 4 prospects 3 in the top 5 in the organization and the other is in the top 10 (Hagadone). That is some idea of where you could start with him. Now the real question: is it a good idea to "mortgage the farm?"
In most cases it's never good, but the funny thing is IF this trade were to happen another trade would almost be a CERTAINTY. The player involved would HAVE TO be Brad Penny. Although that gargantuan man has been throwing the hell out of the ball lately, Roy Halladay he is not. You need to move Penny to make room for 'Doc' in the rotation. With value never being higher than right now you could be looking at 2 B+ level prospects or an A level prospect in return. People may think I'm crazy for thinking an A Prospect in return but if you're in the thick of a pennant race you could be in Dire Straits, the Brewers and Rangers come to mind. Both teams have solid players in their farm systems and could be likely places for one, Brad Penny. I would even look at the Angels as a sleeper for him.
Do I want Halladay here? Yes. Is it worth the prospects? Yes. He's the best pitcher in baseball and you are guaranteed 7+ innings every time. You don't pencil him in for 7 you write it in with Sharpie and plan your bullpen accordingly.
Stay Tuned
Ryan
I hate to rain on the parade here but there is no way JP Ricciardi is stupid enough to trade Roy Halladay within the American League East. I also don't think he's worth the prospects.
ReplyDeleteAlso, included in that Johan Santana deal would've been Jon Lester and Jacoby Ellsbury.
Ricciardi if they give them buchholz bowden and someone else are going to have to atleast listen...I didn't want to do the Santana deal if Lester was included...i was just saying that he has a history of keeping the prospects in house how is the best pitcher in baseball not worth a "potential" front line starter a Jeff Suppan-esque (Bowden) and 2 other players.
ReplyDeletewhat would the rangers have to give up to have a shot at holiday?? T
ReplyDeleteHey man, Here's the thing with the rangers, they have great prospects in Andrus, Perez, Smoak, Ramirez and Teagarden...In order to get Halladay they are going to have to give some pitching...so you can kiss Perez good bye. Derek Holland might also be someone that they ask for. I'm pretty sure that Smoak is untouchable for anyone short of Albert Pujols, But Perez Holland and Ramirez and maybe another prospect may be enough to pry him away. That being said the Rangers are also in some financial trouble right now, so they may have to give up a LOT in order for the blue jays to pay some of the freight of his contract.
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