The Red Sox enter the All-Star Break with the best record in the American League. No surprise there. The way they got there was a little surprising but nonetheless they are at the pinnacle of the American League. What could there be to quibble with? The starting rotation is in a revolving infirmary and we may have a logjam in less than two weeks.
With the last two weeks basically being filled in with spare parts or a squeaky wheel it will be a breath of fresh air to have the studs back in your staff. Here's what the Sox have set in stone: Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, and Clay Buchholz. The other 2 spots will be filled in with one of the following: John Lackey, Andrew Miller, and Tim Wakefield. Let's look at what the stat sheet tells us.
John Lackey- (6-8, 6.84 ERA, 79 IP, 14 starts, 94 hits, 5.9 K/BB, 1.544 WHIP)
Andrew Miller- (3-0, 3.57 ERA, 22.2IP, 4 starts, 25 hits, 5.2 K/BB, 1.588 WHIP)
Tim Wakefield- (5-3, 4.74 ERA, (81.1 IP, 70 IP as a starter), 11 starts, 79 hits, 4.4 K/BB, 1.273 WHIP)
John Lackey was supposed to be another 'Ace' in the rotation and up to now he was adequate in 2010, and abysmal (this is the kindest word I could think of) in 2011. His K/BB ratio is the lowest since his rookie year, his WHIP has gone up in each of the last 5 years he is hemorrhaging runs at an alarming rate while only lasting 5 2/3 per start. He can't even average a quality start because he's not getting into the 6th inning, let alone let up 3 runs in a game. Also, he is generally unlucky; his BABiP is alarmingly high, .322. Usually this is an open and shut case, bullpen or minors. But you can't put him in the minors without an injury, and if you put this guy in the bullpen you're going to long for Frank Castillo and Jeff Suppan to be chucking BB's for the Sox. Let's not forget about the 16.5 million dollar albatross that is leaking from John Henry's payroll department every year.
Andrew Miller, while that undefeated record and sub-4 ERA looks intriguing, a deeper look into his stats really tells a better story. His 3 wins were against, the Padres, Pirates, and Astros. While I'll argue that the Pirates team this year is much improved the offense is still near the bottom in most categories. He is averaging less innings per start than Lackey, at 5.55. His BABiP is also just slightly lower than Lackey's, .315. The thing with Miller is that the other team is not getting that timely hit when there were two outs. I like what I see in Miller, who wouldn't. Lefty, Power Arm, gets on top of the baseball, finally seems to be toning down on the walks. I like that. However, while throwing 95, he may be doing things with some smoke and mirrors.
Tim Wakefield is what Time Wakefield is. A guy that's going to go out there in large part every 5th day and he's going to battle and grind. Probably give up 4, 5, 6 runs but will at least give you length. His ERA is less than a half run more than his career ERA and in 11 starts he's averaging 6 1/3 IP per start. His K/9 is down this year but his BABiP is .257.
After looking at these numbers, you unfortunately have to take Lackey's salary into account which gives him the 4 slot (or 5). Unless he gets injured, which would nullify the debate you have to ride him for better or worse because you would not just be selling him for .75 cents on the dollar you'd be selling him for pennies on the dollar. Tim Wakefield in 11 games in the bullpen this year had an ERA over 5 and a half, and with a pitch as unpredictable as the knuckleball, his value is pretty clearly the length that he gives on the days that he pitches. Andrew Miller, while he looks like he could be a very good pitcher in the future, Wakefield being on the team for over a decade and a half has seniority and now it is his spot.
Historically, Francona has sent Wakefield to the pen for the playoffs which may very well happen again, but as for right now, Francona knows what his team needs is length. He needs to know that when his pitcher goes out there he's at LEAST going into the 6th inning if not deeper. With Lackey and Miller (although a limited sample size) you would be putting your bullpen at risk every time they go out to the slab. Bottom line you can't have 2 guys in a rotation on a team with this payroll not getting into the 6th inning every time out. 1 is manageable, 2 is playing with fire.
Andrew Miller however, is not going to "rot" in AAA. I think he is the second power lefty that we need for the stretch run. If he proves that he can consistently throw strikes he will be a perfect spot lefty or even alternative option on days when Bard is unavailable. He's got a .197 opponent batting average against lefties. If he's able to pound the zone for 1-2 innings at a time for a stretch run he's going to be throwing 97-100 instead of 95-97, sign me up.
Stay Tuned
Norton
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