Short Hops at Short Stop

As the Red Sox are constituted, according to baseball prospectus, are 99.4% to make the playoffs. That being said, the Red Sox could stand pat and almost assuredly get into the postseason.

There has been much ado about JD Drew and his inability to hit anything remotely resembling a baseball, and rightly so. Josh Reddick right now is hitting out of his mind. Literally out of his mind. I could be wrong but I'm pretty sure Josh Reddick isn't a .360 hitter in the big leagues. But right now you ride the wave and let the kid rake for as long as his hot streak allows. Between he, JD Drew and Darnell McDonald they have enough of a platoon to be at least competitive in the corner outfield position.

People are clamoring for Carlos Beltran, short answer no, long answer not a goddamn chance. The strange, yet genius clause, in his contract that does not allow anyone to get compensation in the form of draft picks is extremely prohibitive. Couple that with the fact that the Mets are paying all of the freight of his hefty tag, you are then forced to give a better prospect because you aren't paying his salary.

While I would absolutely love to see Hunter Pence in the 6^th hole in the Red Sox lineup, I don't think that's happening either. The Astros are asking for a King's ransom and should get it (if they sell him) because he is still under team control through 2012 and is just entering his prime at 29.

But right now the local 9 have two holes in their lineup when JD Drew is in the lineup; the aforementioned right field, and shortstop. I could deal with 2 weak spots in the lineup if all of the rest of the contributors (Ortiz, Pedroia, Gonzalez, Ellsbury) continue to rake and have great production but SS has been a hole in the lineup and out on the diamond.

While I admire Marco Scutaro's toughness last year and at times this year, there is a reason that this guy was mostly a career super-utility man. His range is not what it was 3 years ago and his shoulder injury makes any ball he does get to in the hole an automatic single.

Jed Lowrie has not proved that he can stay on a field, he has however been voted most likely to get Ricketts in the Sox clubhouse, and after his torrid start at the plate which made his butchering of SS palatable, he can't be relied upon. He may get shut down for the rest of the year just to keep roster flexibility if he isn't up to 100% soon.

Red Sox fans have seen what an upgrade at SS can do for the overall defense going into the postseason. Who should they look at not named Jose Reyes?

Erick Aybar would be someone that I would take into serious consideration. He should have won the AL Gold Glove last year, and with the Angels not going to the postseason this year I wonder if he could be had. He isn't going to need to catered to a top 6 spot in the lineup so you can slot him in the 9 hole and let him get on in front of Ellsbury and play flawless defense the rest of the year.

What I think it would cost to get him: He is one of the best SS in the AL and it would definitely take a good package to get him. I wonder if you offered them one of Chih-Hsien Chiang or Alex Hassan and one of Felix Doubront and Kyle Weiland, and another smaller pitching prospect if they'd bite.

Jason Bartlett would be another name I would look at. The Red Sox can obviously deal with Jed Hoyer out in SD and he would require less of a package than Aybar because his bat isn't as much of a weapon.

What I think it would cost to get him: Alex Hassan is a very intriguing prospect and where he plays Left field he is definitely stuck in the minors for the next 7 years if he stays there. He is someone that could go. Alex Hassan, Yamaico Navarro, and Michael Bowden probably gets that deal done.

I don't know that there are any other SS fits for this team other than these two. But these are the two players I'd target if I want to sure up my infield.

Stay Tuned
Norton

 

Pitching Surplus?

The Red Sox enter the All-Star Break with the best record in the American League. No surprise there. The way they got there was a little surprising but nonetheless they are at the pinnacle of the American League. What could there be to quibble with? The starting rotation is in a revolving infirmary and we may have a logjam in less than two weeks.

With the last two weeks basically being filled in with spare parts or a squeaky wheel it will be a breath of fresh air to have the studs back in your staff. Here's what the Sox have set in stone: Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, and Clay Buchholz. The other 2 spots will be filled in with one of the following: John Lackey, Andrew Miller, and Tim Wakefield. Let's look at what the stat sheet tells us.

John Lackey- (6-8, 6.84 ERA, 79 IP, 14 starts, 94 hits, 5.9 K/BB, 1.544 WHIP)

Andrew Miller- (3-0, 3.57 ERA, 22.2IP, 4 starts, 25 hits, 5.2 K/BB, 1.588 WHIP)

Tim Wakefield- (5-3, 4.74 ERA, (81.1 IP, 70 IP as a starter), 11 starts, 79 hits, 4.4 K/BB, 1.273 WHIP)

John Lackey was supposed to be another 'Ace' in the rotation and up to now he was adequate in 2010, and abysmal (this is the kindest word I could think of) in 2011. His K/BB ratio is the lowest since his rookie year, his WHIP has gone up in each of the last 5 years he is hemorrhaging runs at an alarming rate while only lasting 5 2/3 per start. He can't even average a quality start because he's not getting into the 6^th inning, let alone let up 3 runs in a game. Also, he is generally unlucky; his BABiP is alarmingly high, .322. Usually this is an open and shut case, bullpen or minors. But you can't put him in the minors without an injury, and if you put this guy in the bullpen you're going to long for Frank Castillo and Jeff Suppan to be chucking BB's for the Sox. Let's not forget about the 16.5 million dollar albatross that is leaking from John Henry's payroll department every year.

Andrew Miller, while that undefeated record and sub-4 ERA looks intriguing, a deeper look into his stats really tells a better story. His 3 wins were against, the Padres, Pirates, and Astros. While I'll argue that the Pirates team this year is much improved the offense is still near the bottom in most categories. He is averaging less innings per start than Lackey, at 5.55. His BABiP is also just slightly lower than Lackey's, .315. The thing with Miller is that the other team is not getting that timely hit when there were two outs. I like what I see in Miller, who wouldn't. Lefty, Power Arm, gets on top of the baseball, finally seems to be toning down on the walks. I like that. However, while throwing 95, he may be doing things with some smoke and mirrors.

Tim Wakefield is what Time Wakefield is. A guy that's going to go out there in large part every 5^th day and he's going to battle and grind. Probably give up 4, 5, 6 runs but will at least give you length. His ERA is less than a half run more than his career ERA and in 11 starts he's averaging 6 1/3 IP per start. His K/9 is down this year but his BABiP is .257.

After looking at these numbers, you unfortunately have to take Lackey's salary into account which gives him the 4 slot (or 5). Unless he gets injured, which would nullify the debate you have to ride him for better or worse because you would not just be selling him for .75 cents on the dollar you'd be selling him for pennies on the dollar. Tim Wakefield in 11 games in the bullpen this year had an ERA over 5 and a half, and with a pitch as unpredictable as the knuckleball, his value is pretty clearly the length that he gives on the days that he pitches. Andrew Miller, while he looks like he could be a very good pitcher in the future, Wakefield being on the team for over a decade and a half has seniority and now it is his spot.

Historically, Francona has sent Wakefield to the pen for the playoffs which may very well happen again, but as for right now, Francona knows what his team needs is length. He needs to know that when his pitcher goes out there he's at LEAST going into the 6^th inning if not deeper. With Lackey and Miller (although a limited sample size) you would be putting your bullpen at risk every time they go out to the slab. Bottom line you can't have 2 guys in a rotation on a team with this payroll not getting into the 6^th inning every time out. 1 is manageable, 2 is playing with fire.

Andrew Miller however, is not going to "rot" in AAA. I think he is the second power lefty that we need for the stretch run. If he proves that he can consistently throw strikes he will be a perfect spot lefty or even alternative option on days when Bard is unavailable. He's got a .197 opponent batting average against lefties. If he's able to pound the zone for 1-2 innings at a time for a stretch run he's going to be throwing 97-100 instead of 95-97, sign me up.

Stay Tuned

Norton

Synthetically Altered

I have always been a person that has believed that you must be proven guilty before passing judgment on someone. That being said, I'd like to turn our attention to the perennial douchebag Jeff Passan's latest column on Yahoo!.

For everyone that follows baseball, even for a second, heard about Albert Pujols' fractured wrist about 2 weeks ago. He is (was?) the best player in baseball and when he goes down people know about it. Now the standard healing time for such an injury is 4-6 weeks. Pujols is now back in the lineup for the St. Louis Cardinals (16 days after the injury), and was hitting tape-measure shots in batting practice 2 days before his return to the lineup. So, you're looking at 2 weeks almost to the day after a fractured wrist and you're back in the 3-hole. Riiiiight *said in my Dr. Evil voice*

I have always been a staunch Pujols supporter, but this is really stretching the boundaries on what is possible with the human body. Unnaturally fast healing time is a byproduct using HGH and as much as we don't want to believe it I don't want to turn a blind eye because that would be irresponsible. While I'm certainly not accusing Sir Albert, I'm not sure that I can ardently defend a player that is clearly superhuman, without at least entertaining the possibility that some of his accomplishments may be synthetic.

Jose Bautista, another guy that has never failed a drug test, yet because of his relative anonymity prior to 2010 he's vilified as another PED user. It's not right! The guy was a career fringe player whose scouting reports said, ""light- tower power" when he makes contact" and now he re-tooled his swing, by shortening his swing path and getting his hands in a better position to hit a baseball. And now he hits piss missiles whenever he gets the chance. People forget that hard-work, determination, and will go a long way too in this game.

Grasping this situation is still sort of elusive. Baseball first and foremost is about entertainment. Homeruns and exciting plays bring fans to the park, butts in the buckets, asses in the seats. But, at the same time, there's something to be said about making taking an extra base, stealing home, playing hit & run, and bunting. "Small-Ball" makes real fans appreciate the nuances of the game while the long ball brings frogskins ($cha-ching$).

After thinking it through, I will not besmirch that character of Albert Pujols and his superhuman healing abilities but if he could not be so damn amazing and herculean all the time, it may go a long way for his critics to realize he is not "The Machine" and is just Albert Pujols.

Stay Tuned

Norton

Get the Chopping Block

No coach/manager/GM likes to make cuts but when players are forcing their employer's hands the Boston Red Sox were made to cut a 15 year player in the league. Mike Cameron was designated for assignment and he will not be back with the Boston, yet the Sox are still paying out 3+ million throughout the rest of the year. This signing could go down as the all-around worst signing of the Theo regime. I would put this above Lackey and JD Drew, and right on par with Julio Lugo and Edgar Renteria.

Let's think about everything that went into this signing. A bunch of stat head's told Theo that Cameron's UZR was better than Jacoby Ellsbury's so they tried to justify shifting 'Ells' to left field, and essentially nullifying the one true talent he was blessed with, speed. So you have a 37-year-old (at the time of signing) that just got let go by the Brewers, patrolling one of the largest outfields in baseball, and you've moved the younger 26-year old player to left. Because of this move Jacoby Ellsbury met Adrian Beltre and you lost your leadoff hitter for the entire year. Cameron got injured because, here's a shocker, he's 37 friggin years old, so we lost 2/3 of the starting outfield and were scrambling to play catch up before the beginning of May. I'm all for occasionally throwing shit up against the wall hoping it sticks, but you signed a 37 year old that hadn't produced like he used to in 4 years, for not one but 2 years. Oh, not only 2 years but at 7 million per year. Let's put that into perspective, that's more than Adrian Gonzalez, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury and Jon Lester have made in each of the last 2 years. Alas, I firmly believe you are worth what someone is willing to pay you.

Coming into this year, Mike Cameron's job was to be a platoon player in right and just rake on lefties this year but he's hitting well below (.143) the Mendoza Line against southpaws and his defense this year hasn't been anything like he's used to. Because of his albatross of a salary, lack of production at the plate, and clearly declining range in the outfield he is the quintessential meaning of "no trade value".

Some people have asked me why you DFA Cameron instead of a lower salaried, non-established player. My answer is that I don't think their done extracting from their roster. I think once Crawford comes back, the corresponding move will be to DFA McDonald as well. Their skill-set was too redundant and neither of them have any value but I would say that the reason you keep Darnell now is that McDonald's defense has been better this year than the Gold Glover's, McDonald has a better track record of producing with limited playing time, and McDonald has a step on the old man if it came down to stealing a base. It basically came down to who has sucked more. After realizing that no one AT ALL would take on any part of a dead 3+ million dollars it made sense to cut ties. For some reason his pride says that he can/should still be a starter in this league (his bat speed disagrees, ZING!) and on this team he is not going to get his desired playing time.

Going forward the Red Sox still have needs and issues in Right Field, potentially Shortstop, the starting rotation, and a late inning power reliever.

• Looks can be deceiving but from 2007-2010 Drew has actually been one of the most productive Right fielders in the game. But in 2011 he has been one of the worst. To the point, where the Red Sox production in right field between Drew, Cameron and McDonald is last in Major League Baseball. However, conflicting reports about the Red Sox ability to add payroll if needed at the deadline. And for the first time I can't say that I blame them with regards to right field. Ownership just this year had 21 million dollars invested in right field between Drew and Cameron and I doubt they feel comfortable allocating any more funds to that black hole. This player will probably be right handed. The names that are surfacing are Michael Cuddyer (his versatility makes this a great move if they could), Josh Willingham ( This would cost more in prospects than Cuddyer because of the lower salary, but he can hit), and Ryan Spillborghs (I'd rather catch AIDS).
  


• Jed Lowrie's shoulder appears to be worse than expected and his annual inability to not keep himself on the field really is starting to become a burden for his career and this team. I don't think Marco Scutaro can be the SS for a World Series winning team. I think you may see a move here whether it's calling up 'The Kid' or making a move for a SS not named Jose Reyes.
  


• Bobby Jenks' health and ineffectiveness must be weighing on Theo's mind. So much so that he needs another reliever and I think this solution comes internally. When Buchholz comes back presumably after the All-Star Break you have a logjam in the rotation with Beckett, Buchholz, Lester, Lackey, Wakefield, Miller. I think Miller moves into the pen and spot starts occasionally if someone needs rest or gets injured and then you have two power lefties with Morales and Miller. Wakefield's value is not out of the 'pen it is eating innings as a starter. Lackey is a mental midget and if you put him in the bullpen you will lose him for the rest of the year, and probably for the duration of his contract.
  

One of the final things that has been stuck in my craw lately is the constant bitching, woe is me garbage they are doling out in their interviews with regards to interleague play. Kevin Youkilis saying, "It's not fair that we have to play without our DH". When Papi isn't hitting, this isn't a big deal, but all of a sudden he starts hitting again, and we need to "pump his tires" like he's Ted goddamn Williams. Please. The Boston Red Sox are not at a disadvantage against ANY TEAM. It is the rules. For 9 games in a row the DH can't play, its part of your schedule, it has been for 14 years, deal with it. The constant whining is not becoming as a player and I don't like it as a fan. The whole Gonzalez to right field debate (if we had a workable right fielder) shouldn't have been up for discussion. You keep the AL MVP at first base, and you tell David to sit on the bench till the 7^th, 8^th or 9^th when you will pinch hit every game. That's what should have happens. The constant Ortiz fellatiating is really getting tiresome. Thanks for '04 and you're still an important member of the team, but when the rules say that you're "position" isn't allowed to play that day, then shut your jib, and ride the pine until the manager says to swing a stick. Rant done.

Stay Tuned

Norton