Fare the Well

To all of my devoted followers to Bottom of the Ninth I would first like to say thank you for reading! The viewership that this blog generated far surpassed anything that I imagined when I first started it and it has been a great pleasure.

That being said, I'm not done baby, not by a long shot. I have joined forces with some friends to make a superblog entitled Views from the Couch. We will be covering an entire spate of topics in the sports world. It is a new chapter in my blogging life and would love all of my readers to come with me and enjoy in the stylings of my friends. You will not be disappointed and as always the comments are welcome, appreciated, and usually laughed at.

See you over on another domain.
Norton

Rumblings!

It's been a while since I've done one of these….literally a year and a half…Christ you all should have demanded more of me.

• Jim Thome has a higher career OBP than Rod Carew and Tony Gwynn, has never been linked to anything performance enhancing, and now has hit 600 career home runs. Anyone that says he isn't a Hall of Famer, has no supporting evidence to stake that claim. The fact that he's not getting half as much publicity as Jeter's 3000^th hit is a travesty.
  
• On an unrelated Twins side note, what the hell happened to Joe Mauer? His last 200 games he has hit 10 total home runs. He has hit just 1 this year in 62 games and does not look at all like someone that deserves a 180+ million dollar contract. To put his pitiful season into perspective. His OPS is .677, Marco Scutaro is at .721, Yikes. It's truly sad. To top it off, how much longer can he stay behind the plate and be a potent bat in a lineup.
  
• It's not anywhere near time to call Carl Crawford a bust, but this inaugural season has been atrocious. He looks lost at the plate, his Joe Madden-endorsed "best LF in baseball" has been underwhelming to say the least, and he has not gotten on base which has cut down on the havoc he causes on the bases. There is something to be said about a "fresh start" for baseball players and when the Sox get into October, Carl Crawford like everyone else will have a chance to carve their niche once again with a clean slate. Here's hoping he picks it up in October.
  
• Despite being statistically the worst defensive centerfielder in baseball, what Curtis Granderson is doing at the dish is really putting a strong case together for the MVP.
  
• While I'm not worried about Adrian Gonzalez, it is odd to see him still sitting on 18 home runs. Wonder if the surgically repaired shoulder is bothering him?
  
• I may have changed my position on Pete Rose and his induction into the Hall of Fame after dissecting and wading my way through the seediness of Alex Rodriguez and his poker/gambling antics. I believe that Pete should be in as a player, because there is no evidence that he did anything while playing. It seems weird to have a Hall of Fame without the All-Time Hits Leader. But as a manager there are ways to manipulate your bullpen and leaving in pitchers one batter too long that go unnoticed too often that really could have tainted the game.
  
• As For A-Rod, I will give him the benefit of the doubt that he wasn't betting on games, because his "legacy" is already tarnished enough. But just think about this for a second, knowing that he was playing in games that had buy-ins of upwards of 2-millon dollars I would say if he was betting he'd be wagering another hefty amount. If he had a bad night and lost 15 million or so someone could ask him to then fix a game instead of the 15 million. You could then be looking at a big issue with the games integrity. Not that A-Rod is the poster child for moral fiber but you get the gist.
  
• Call me crazy but I'm taking the Brewers over the Phillies in the NLCS this year, Book it. Phillies have the better starting pitching but Milwaukee has the capability to shut down the Phillies bats, the edge in bullpen and offense go to Milwaukee.
  
• Here's a bold statement. While I disagree with the nickname "Big Game" James Shields he is definitely the ace of that team, not David Price. I also think Price could be traded to get the Rays some MUCH needed offense, in the offseason. Who hangs up first: David Price for Joey Votto?
  
• I wonder what else Josh Reddick needs to do for the Sox to fully trust him. They keep pinch hitting him late in games, and being very selective with the lefties that he gets to face. Take the kid gloves off; let's see what he can do. If he's going to play in October he's going to need to face some sort of challenges beforehand.
  
• Adam Dunn and Hanley Ramirez where fore art thou?
  

Stay Tuned

Norton

State of the Nation Address

Fresh off a week that saw 3 "walk-off" victories and a series win against the Yankees all is copasetic in the Hub. There are however some points of interest that I have noticed going into the post season:

Who is the Shortstop?

The Red Sox trade for Mike Aviles but is he a starting shortstop for a World Series winning team? Most likely not, he's a depth move. Lowrie has just come back from his Oregon Trail-esque bout of Dysentery and Marco Scutaro's carcass has been manning down the six since Lowrie left. While most of the year I have been pining for Scutaro to essentially be left behind on a road trip somewhere, it may be in the Red Sox best interest to platoon them. If however, the Sox think they can keep Lowrie healthy by platooning him with Aviles the rest of the season it would not surprise me to see Scutaro put on trade waivers and dealt to someone in need of a body at SS (Diamondbacks?). The skill sets are too similar to be carrying all three of them on the roster before they expand on September 1.

Who is the number 3 starter in the Playoffs?

I'm in the camp that thinks the day the Red Sox acquired Erik Bedard the Sox Brass called John Lackey into the office and said, "We're wiping the slate clean, from this day forward you are in a direct heat with Erik Bedard for Game 3. Whomever pitches better wins. Good Luck." John Lackey while not being dominant has done what he needed to do to keep the Red Sox in games since the All-Star Break. Over his last 8 starts he has only walked 6 men total. This means he is attacking in the strike zone, making the opposition earn their baserunners and not being afraid to challenge hitters.

Erik Bedard is in the unique position where he will finally get run support for the first time in his career and if he stays healthy he could be a big acquisition at the deadline. However, unless he goes the rest of the way with an ERA of less than 2, I'd say the 3^rd spot is Lackey's to lose unless he completely pisses down his leg.

Who is the AL MVP?

Adrian Gonzalez has had a great first season in Boston but his recent power outage may be costing him some hardware, despite leading the league in hitting. Jose Bautista hits anything within both batters' boxes but he is on a losing team and there aren't many MVPs from teams not in the playoffs. Jacoby Ellsbury is having a breakout season but he may not even be the best centerfielder in the division this year, Curtis Granderson is on pace to score 144 runs and hit over 30 homeruns. I think you will see the plaque delivered to the diminutive, Dustin Pedroia. He has impacted the game in every facet day in and day out for the last 2 months, he was the best player in baseball in July, and I don't think Roberto Alomar in his prime could play as good a second base as he has played this entire year with a screw in his foot and a balky knee. He has cemented himself as the best 2^nd basemen in baseball and it's not as close as all the Yankees fans seem to think it is. His OBP and SLG are both higher than they were the year he won his first award and he has the second highest WAR in the league behind Jose Bautista and the second highest Fielding metrics behind Brett Gardner. For all the RBI lovers out there, it's a meaningless stat unless the guys in front of them get on base, and with Pedroia getting on base at more than a .400 clip he is providing at least half of Gonzalez's RBI.

Saltalamacchia mea culpa

Get ready, wait for it, here it comes, I was wrong.
Don't get used to that, in part because it doesn't happen often and the other part because I don't like to say it. Saltalamacchia has proven me wrong. At first I thought he'd be serviceable, then jumped to a conclusion far too quickly that he wasn't going to cut it. Given who were the AL catchers this year on the All-Star Team he could have and probably should have made the team just due to numbers at that time. He has also made strides leaps and bounds throwing the ball to the bases. The heat-seekers from behind the dish have been a sight to behold and the last month specifically he has turned the catching position from a non-weakness, to a strength. Well done, Salt, well done.

Papelbon on a mission

Jonathan Papelbon has reverted back to his dominant self. His last ten appearances go as follows: 10IP, 2H, 0R, 12K, 0BB. His inflated ERA from a few non-save situations may make some people shy away from anointing him one of the Top 3 in baseball this year but he has earned it and may have priced himself back into a contract for a few years in Boston.

Ortiz situation

Look, I understand that baseball is a business, but I hate when players gripe about a contract. When players have earned the right to test free agency some of them do it. When a player is in the final year of his contract and is performing well, he asks for security. If a player underperforms in the first couple years of a contract can the ownership ask for the money back? Obviously not. If Ortiz was hitting .240 would he still be saying this. No he wouldn't. Just as players can dunk their toes in the free agency waters, front office guys are allowed to wait until the end of contracts before deciding what to do with their players. It's called honoring a contract. That being said Ortiz, if producing is still a cog in the lineup. He is said to want 2 years. Why not something like this.

1 Guaranteed year 10 million

2 Vesting options, 10 million per. The option vests on each different year if Ortiz hits 28+ HRs and/or 100 RBI but the options void if he hits under .250. If he hits under .250 then his options then become a player option for 5 million with a 3 million buyout clause.

If Ortiz believes in his abilities, and continues to produce this could potentially be 30 million more in his pocket. This also gives the Sox flexibility if he doesn't produce.

That's about all I can muster for you all, feel free to leave it in the comments.

Stay Tuned

Norton

The Trade Deadline That Was and Wasn’t

The trade deadline came and went and we did mostly what I thought we'd do, get some semblance of a shortstop and a starting pitcher. But after the inevitable news that Clay Buchholz's season just went down the shitter did our hopes of winning the AL Pennant go with his back?

New Acquisitions: Erik Bedard, Mike Aviles, Josh Fields

Players departed: Yamaico Navarro, Tim Federowicz, Chih-Hsien Chiang, Stephen Fife, Kendal Volz

Just talking personnel-wise the move was brilliant. Clay Buchholz isn't coming back in 2011, so you needed a starter. Bang, Erik Bedard. You need a guy that can stay on the field and be a utility guy, enter Lowrie-insurance Mike Aviles. There was a log jam on the 40 man roster when players came back from the DL and the Red Sox would have lost these players in the Rule 5 Draft. So, instead of losing the players for nothing you brought back a starter and a veteran infielder to get through the season with. Every player that was given up has atleast one player if not 2 in front of them in this organization's depth chart of prospects

Some of you may be thinking the often-flashy, seldom-solid Navarro and a pitching prospect are too much for a guy hitting .222. Navarro is not a stud, and was obviously behind Jose Iglesias and Jed Lowrie as SS. Don't forget that Aviles hit .304 last year, tends to hit lefties well (.309 in 2011), and is now moving to a better hitters' ballpark. Kendal Volz is a middling pitcher and they are a dime a dozen in the minor leagues, not a huge loss.

The "haul" in the Bedard deal is another case of clearing out the roster with second tier guys. Federowicz, while probably the best defensive catcher in the Sox system, doesn't have the offensive upside that Lavarnway has so he is therefore expendable. Chiang is putting together a great season .340 with 18 dingers in AA is behind Kalish and Reddick. He could turn into something in a couple years but right now, another commodity. Fife is just like Volz, replaceable.

Theo, you win the battle of acquiring, without giving up anything. Great job, now I have an issue with what you acquired.

I like the Mike Aviles move I really do, I actually think he should take some at-bats away from Scutaro. The Scutaro Experiment is done as soon as Lowrie comes back from his ailment-du-jour, what is it today, Lupus? Scutaro is admirable in the amount of pain he plays through, but he is hurting the team more than helping with his lack of range, less than average arm, missing signs, and lack of presence at the plate. Scutaro will most likely be gone before the end of August via trade waivers, provided Lowrie is back. There is no reason to keep him, Lowrie and Aviles on the same team when they essentially all play the same role. One has to go, it's Scutaro, look for him to go out to San Francisco or the Arizona Diamondbacks for a pouch of half-chewed Red Man and Pablo Sandoval's jockstrap.

Let's be honest the pitching market this July was thin, especially when you find out that Bedard was sloppy-seconds to Rich Harden who may actually have more problems than Jaleel White's acting career. In Bedard, you're getting a pitcher who hasn't thrown past July in any of the last 3 years, never pitched in a pennant race and after surgery has been pitching (or occupying a spot on their roster, see what I did there?) in the AL West. Let's couple that with the fact that he doesn't like the media, and we're essentially throwing him to the wolves aka Dan Shaughnessey. When he's healthy, a good, not great pitcher who in the past has had success in the AL East but hasn't pitched there in 3 years. Here's the real question: Do you feel comfortable with John Lackey taking the ball in the 3^rd game of the playoffs in lieu of Clay Buchholz, because I don't.

There are those who think Lackey has turned the corner, while I'd say his offense has made his deficiencies less noticeable. Hard to look pedestrian when your team puts up 8 runs every time you go out, just sayin'. He has won 4 starts in a row, but in two of those starts he has combined to give up 21 hits, 6 runs in 11.1 innings, nothing to write home about is it? Didn't think so.

What was the Red Sox advantage against every team they play, depth at starting pitching, just leveled off and put you about even with Texas and only one starter ahead of the Yankees and Detroit. Texas stabilized their bullpen, prying Mike Adams away from the Padres, and Koji UeHara from the Birds. They are also the only other team that can match the Red Sox in the 'pen, on defense, and in the rotation. The Yankees say they have a championship caliber team, when in fact they do not. They have a championship caliber offense, and one legitimate pitcher. Three pitchers possibly four win in the playoffs, not one.

Look, the Sox have the best record in the AL so we're just splitting hairs here when you're on the first day of August griping about who your #3 starter is going to be in the playoffs. But to say that the playing field wasn't leveled when Buchholz went tits up, would be the understatement of the year.

Stay Tuned

Norton

 

Short Hops at Short Stop

As the Red Sox are constituted, according to baseball prospectus, are 99.4% to make the playoffs. That being said, the Red Sox could stand pat and almost assuredly get into the postseason.

There has been much ado about JD Drew and his inability to hit anything remotely resembling a baseball, and rightly so. Josh Reddick right now is hitting out of his mind. Literally out of his mind. I could be wrong but I'm pretty sure Josh Reddick isn't a .360 hitter in the big leagues. But right now you ride the wave and let the kid rake for as long as his hot streak allows. Between he, JD Drew and Darnell McDonald they have enough of a platoon to be at least competitive in the corner outfield position.

People are clamoring for Carlos Beltran, short answer no, long answer not a goddamn chance. The strange, yet genius clause, in his contract that does not allow anyone to get compensation in the form of draft picks is extremely prohibitive. Couple that with the fact that the Mets are paying all of the freight of his hefty tag, you are then forced to give a better prospect because you aren't paying his salary.

While I would absolutely love to see Hunter Pence in the 6^th hole in the Red Sox lineup, I don't think that's happening either. The Astros are asking for a King's ransom and should get it (if they sell him) because he is still under team control through 2012 and is just entering his prime at 29.

But right now the local 9 have two holes in their lineup when JD Drew is in the lineup; the aforementioned right field, and shortstop. I could deal with 2 weak spots in the lineup if all of the rest of the contributors (Ortiz, Pedroia, Gonzalez, Ellsbury) continue to rake and have great production but SS has been a hole in the lineup and out on the diamond.

While I admire Marco Scutaro's toughness last year and at times this year, there is a reason that this guy was mostly a career super-utility man. His range is not what it was 3 years ago and his shoulder injury makes any ball he does get to in the hole an automatic single.

Jed Lowrie has not proved that he can stay on a field, he has however been voted most likely to get Ricketts in the Sox clubhouse, and after his torrid start at the plate which made his butchering of SS palatable, he can't be relied upon. He may get shut down for the rest of the year just to keep roster flexibility if he isn't up to 100% soon.

Red Sox fans have seen what an upgrade at SS can do for the overall defense going into the postseason. Who should they look at not named Jose Reyes?

Erick Aybar would be someone that I would take into serious consideration. He should have won the AL Gold Glove last year, and with the Angels not going to the postseason this year I wonder if he could be had. He isn't going to need to catered to a top 6 spot in the lineup so you can slot him in the 9 hole and let him get on in front of Ellsbury and play flawless defense the rest of the year.

What I think it would cost to get him: He is one of the best SS in the AL and it would definitely take a good package to get him. I wonder if you offered them one of Chih-Hsien Chiang or Alex Hassan and one of Felix Doubront and Kyle Weiland, and another smaller pitching prospect if they'd bite.

Jason Bartlett would be another name I would look at. The Red Sox can obviously deal with Jed Hoyer out in SD and he would require less of a package than Aybar because his bat isn't as much of a weapon.

What I think it would cost to get him: Alex Hassan is a very intriguing prospect and where he plays Left field he is definitely stuck in the minors for the next 7 years if he stays there. He is someone that could go. Alex Hassan, Yamaico Navarro, and Michael Bowden probably gets that deal done.

I don't know that there are any other SS fits for this team other than these two. But these are the two players I'd target if I want to sure up my infield.

Stay Tuned
Norton

 

Pitching Surplus?

The Red Sox enter the All-Star Break with the best record in the American League. No surprise there. The way they got there was a little surprising but nonetheless they are at the pinnacle of the American League. What could there be to quibble with? The starting rotation is in a revolving infirmary and we may have a logjam in less than two weeks.

With the last two weeks basically being filled in with spare parts or a squeaky wheel it will be a breath of fresh air to have the studs back in your staff. Here's what the Sox have set in stone: Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, and Clay Buchholz. The other 2 spots will be filled in with one of the following: John Lackey, Andrew Miller, and Tim Wakefield. Let's look at what the stat sheet tells us.

John Lackey- (6-8, 6.84 ERA, 79 IP, 14 starts, 94 hits, 5.9 K/BB, 1.544 WHIP)

Andrew Miller- (3-0, 3.57 ERA, 22.2IP, 4 starts, 25 hits, 5.2 K/BB, 1.588 WHIP)

Tim Wakefield- (5-3, 4.74 ERA, (81.1 IP, 70 IP as a starter), 11 starts, 79 hits, 4.4 K/BB, 1.273 WHIP)

John Lackey was supposed to be another 'Ace' in the rotation and up to now he was adequate in 2010, and abysmal (this is the kindest word I could think of) in 2011. His K/BB ratio is the lowest since his rookie year, his WHIP has gone up in each of the last 5 years he is hemorrhaging runs at an alarming rate while only lasting 5 2/3 per start. He can't even average a quality start because he's not getting into the 6^th inning, let alone let up 3 runs in a game. Also, he is generally unlucky; his BABiP is alarmingly high, .322. Usually this is an open and shut case, bullpen or minors. But you can't put him in the minors without an injury, and if you put this guy in the bullpen you're going to long for Frank Castillo and Jeff Suppan to be chucking BB's for the Sox. Let's not forget about the 16.5 million dollar albatross that is leaking from John Henry's payroll department every year.

Andrew Miller, while that undefeated record and sub-4 ERA looks intriguing, a deeper look into his stats really tells a better story. His 3 wins were against, the Padres, Pirates, and Astros. While I'll argue that the Pirates team this year is much improved the offense is still near the bottom in most categories. He is averaging less innings per start than Lackey, at 5.55. His BABiP is also just slightly lower than Lackey's, .315. The thing with Miller is that the other team is not getting that timely hit when there were two outs. I like what I see in Miller, who wouldn't. Lefty, Power Arm, gets on top of the baseball, finally seems to be toning down on the walks. I like that. However, while throwing 95, he may be doing things with some smoke and mirrors.

Tim Wakefield is what Time Wakefield is. A guy that's going to go out there in large part every 5^th day and he's going to battle and grind. Probably give up 4, 5, 6 runs but will at least give you length. His ERA is less than a half run more than his career ERA and in 11 starts he's averaging 6 1/3 IP per start. His K/9 is down this year but his BABiP is .257.

After looking at these numbers, you unfortunately have to take Lackey's salary into account which gives him the 4 slot (or 5). Unless he gets injured, which would nullify the debate you have to ride him for better or worse because you would not just be selling him for .75 cents on the dollar you'd be selling him for pennies on the dollar. Tim Wakefield in 11 games in the bullpen this year had an ERA over 5 and a half, and with a pitch as unpredictable as the knuckleball, his value is pretty clearly the length that he gives on the days that he pitches. Andrew Miller, while he looks like he could be a very good pitcher in the future, Wakefield being on the team for over a decade and a half has seniority and now it is his spot.

Historically, Francona has sent Wakefield to the pen for the playoffs which may very well happen again, but as for right now, Francona knows what his team needs is length. He needs to know that when his pitcher goes out there he's at LEAST going into the 6^th inning if not deeper. With Lackey and Miller (although a limited sample size) you would be putting your bullpen at risk every time they go out to the slab. Bottom line you can't have 2 guys in a rotation on a team with this payroll not getting into the 6^th inning every time out. 1 is manageable, 2 is playing with fire.

Andrew Miller however, is not going to "rot" in AAA. I think he is the second power lefty that we need for the stretch run. If he proves that he can consistently throw strikes he will be a perfect spot lefty or even alternative option on days when Bard is unavailable. He's got a .197 opponent batting average against lefties. If he's able to pound the zone for 1-2 innings at a time for a stretch run he's going to be throwing 97-100 instead of 95-97, sign me up.

Stay Tuned

Norton

Synthetically Altered

I have always been a person that has believed that you must be proven guilty before passing judgment on someone. That being said, I'd like to turn our attention to the perennial douchebag Jeff Passan's latest column on Yahoo!.

For everyone that follows baseball, even for a second, heard about Albert Pujols' fractured wrist about 2 weeks ago. He is (was?) the best player in baseball and when he goes down people know about it. Now the standard healing time for such an injury is 4-6 weeks. Pujols is now back in the lineup for the St. Louis Cardinals (16 days after the injury), and was hitting tape-measure shots in batting practice 2 days before his return to the lineup. So, you're looking at 2 weeks almost to the day after a fractured wrist and you're back in the 3-hole. Riiiiight *said in my Dr. Evil voice*

I have always been a staunch Pujols supporter, but this is really stretching the boundaries on what is possible with the human body. Unnaturally fast healing time is a byproduct using HGH and as much as we don't want to believe it I don't want to turn a blind eye because that would be irresponsible. While I'm certainly not accusing Sir Albert, I'm not sure that I can ardently defend a player that is clearly superhuman, without at least entertaining the possibility that some of his accomplishments may be synthetic.

Jose Bautista, another guy that has never failed a drug test, yet because of his relative anonymity prior to 2010 he's vilified as another PED user. It's not right! The guy was a career fringe player whose scouting reports said, ""light- tower power" when he makes contact" and now he re-tooled his swing, by shortening his swing path and getting his hands in a better position to hit a baseball. And now he hits piss missiles whenever he gets the chance. People forget that hard-work, determination, and will go a long way too in this game.

Grasping this situation is still sort of elusive. Baseball first and foremost is about entertainment. Homeruns and exciting plays bring fans to the park, butts in the buckets, asses in the seats. But, at the same time, there's something to be said about making taking an extra base, stealing home, playing hit & run, and bunting. "Small-Ball" makes real fans appreciate the nuances of the game while the long ball brings frogskins ($cha-ching$).

After thinking it through, I will not besmirch that character of Albert Pujols and his superhuman healing abilities but if he could not be so damn amazing and herculean all the time, it may go a long way for his critics to realize he is not "The Machine" and is just Albert Pujols.

Stay Tuned

Norton