I'll be honest last year was difficult as far as predictions go. I got 4/8 playoff teams and I acted a bit of a homer, and didn't take into account the baseball acumen that people flock to this blog to accumulate themselves. Beckett has not performed in an even year since he was with the Marlins. Lackey I should have taken into account the jump to the AL East (look at Beckett's first season here). These are things that I knew and didn't put into my thinking last year and frankly I'm ashamed that I wasn't better, for you all.
Imagine me speaking in my Coolio voice here, Awww here it goes:
AL East- Boston Red Sox (100-62)
This looks familiar but Presumably Beckett can't pitch any worse than he did last year when he channeled Way Back Wasdin far too much. Lackey has had a year of seasoning in the AL East and if he is the pitcher we thought when we acquired him, will not only pitch better but have a plan when he goes on the mound more this year. But this offense just got a violent shove into DYNAMIC. We added the best free agent player on the market in Carl Crawford and got an offensive and defensive juggernaut to man first base, Gonzalez. If he doesn't hit 50 home runs this year with 81 games in this ball park and 19 or so at Yankee Stadium I will honestly declare this a down year for him. Lester will be Lester, bottom line. Daisuke is what he is, an enigma but for a 5th starter I guess I have to deal with his nibbling. X-Factor is Clay Buchholz. If he has any semblance of the year that he had last year our rotation will be tough to win a 7 game series against, but I am worried about the Verducci Effect with him so he could go either way, but I do expect a slight regression.
AL Central- Minnesota Twins (92-70)
They win it every year, sometimes they shouldn't but Liriano is now a full year removed from his surgery and hopefully ready to step in as the ace. All systems are a go finally for Justin Morneau, and they finally resigned Pavano, who is pitching in the perfect park for his "stuff". This is a risky pick to me because the White Sox look good on paper for me, and they'll get Peavy back in season. But it's hard to bet against the track record that the Twins have. I'm also excited to see the new 2nd baseman they imported from Japan. X-Factor is Joe Nathan. How effective can/will he be in his first year after surgery? If he is not effective The White Sox will win this division. The Tigers made a few good moves, but outside of Verlander they don't have the pitching. Brad Penny anyone?
AL West- Oakland Athletics (94-68)
Billy Beane has constructed a Great bullpen, acquired some offense with Willingham, Dejesus, and Matsui, and their pitching is young but very impressive. I'm not sure why I have them winning this division but they have above average starting and relief pitching and the three bats they added will really add some punch to that lineup. X-Factor is Brett Anderson. He has Ace stuff on the mound but can he stay healthy? If he makes 30-40 starts they'll win this division if he doesn't it's going to be tough.
AL Wildcard- Tampa Bay Rays (93-69)
This is absolutely going to be a dog fight between the Rays, Yanks, and Rangers. I bet this will go down to the last week into September, with the Rangers fading, and the Yankees having to play a one game playoff with the Rays. Originally I had the Rangers winning but in light of recent moves by the genius front office in St Petersburg I am giving the nod to the Tampa. They signed Damon, and Manny came along in a package deal (Ahem…Boras…Ahem). Damon had a way with Manny to keep him calm and if Manny wants to play past this year he is going to play with a better attitude. But their previously anemic offense just got a little more pop, and this also allows their prized possession Desmond Jennings to get a little more seasoning in AAA and then make the push for a June call up to keep his service time down. X-Factor is Jeremy Hellickson. He has just been handed a rotation spot with the Garza trade and they will need him to contribute if they want to win this Wild Card.
NL East- Philadelphia Phillies (103-59)
This is the first legitimate rotation that could actually beat out Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz in a series that's how scary good they have it. I don't see anyone else in their division this year as competition. The Braves will be alright but it would be a monumental upset and I just don't see it with Halladay and Cliff Lee pitching in September letting that team lose. X-Factor for their chance at domination is Jimmy Rollins. He had a statistical down year and was riddled with injuries, and he is the spark to that offense that did hit some peaks and valleys last year.
NL Central- St. Louis Cardinals (90-72)
There is a legitimate 3 team race in the Central and I am one of the few believers that Lance Berkman is going to have a bounce back year. Carpenter in a Contract Year, Pujols in a contract year, and Wainwright just being an animal? Yup you had me at "Play Ball". Cincinnatti I am anticipating taking a BIG step back this year, I think Rolen is not going to be as productive as he was last year, Renteria is a shell of himself, and while their pitching is solid I don't think their offense will be as potent as last year.
NL West- Los Angeles Dodgers (92-70)
What was the biggest problem with the Dodgers last year? Their pitching was garbage. They have fixed that in a BIG way. Their rotation has depth with Garland and Padilla vying for the 5th spot, Kershaw, Billingsley and Lilly as a top 3 is reliable as long as Billingsley stays healthy. They have depth at most of the positions and Uribe is going to pay dividends for them in the playoffs. They also sured up their bullpen which was in shambles last year. X-Factor is Jonathan Broxton and the health of Chad Billingsley. Broxton had the closers job yanked from him, so he's going to need to step up. Billingsley's health is essential for their success. He is dominant at times but hopefully he comes into spring training in shape and ready to dominate.
NL Wild Card- Milwaukee Brewers (88-74)
They are clearly in "win-now" mode, Prince in a contract year. Zack Greinke, Yovanni Gallardo, and Shawn Marcum is a great triumvirate of pitching. Their bullpen is a question mark for me, but I think they do enough to get in the post season. I'd like to see Prince in the post season one more time to jack up the price for his free agent year. X-Factor is their bullpen. If their bullpen is solid I think their offense is very good.
Let me know what you think, I'd love to give more of an argument for any of my picks.
Stay Tuned
Ryan
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