Prediction Time

I'll be honest last year was difficult as far as predictions go. I got 4/8 playoff teams and I acted a bit of a homer, and didn't take into account the baseball acumen that people flock to this blog to accumulate themselves. Beckett has not performed in an even year since he was with the Marlins. Lackey I should have taken into account the jump to the AL East (look at Beckett's first season here). These are things that I knew and didn't put into my thinking last year and frankly I'm ashamed that I wasn't better, for you all.

Imagine me speaking in my Coolio voice here, Awww here it goes:

AL East- Boston Red Sox (100-62)

This looks familiar but Presumably Beckett can't pitch any worse than he did last year when he channeled Way Back Wasdin far too much. Lackey has had a year of seasoning in the AL East and if he is the pitcher we thought when we acquired him, will not only pitch better but have a plan when he goes on the mound more this year. But this offense just got a violent shove into DYNAMIC. We added the best free agent player on the market in Carl Crawford and got an offensive and defensive juggernaut to man first base, Gonzalez. If he doesn't hit 50 home runs this year with 81 games in this ball park and 19 or so at Yankee Stadium I will honestly declare this a down year for him. Lester will be Lester, bottom line. Daisuke is what he is, an enigma but for a 5^th starter I guess I have to deal with his nibbling. X-Factor is Clay Buchholz. If he has any semblance of the year that he had last year our rotation will be tough to win a 7 game series against, but I am worried about the Verducci Effect with him so he could go either way, but I do expect a slight regression.

AL Central- Minnesota Twins (92-70)

They win it every year, sometimes they shouldn't but Liriano is now a full year removed from his surgery and hopefully ready to step in as the ace. All systems are a go finally for Justin Morneau, and they finally resigned Pavano, who is pitching in the perfect park for his "stuff". This is a risky pick to me because the White Sox look good on paper for me, and they'll get Peavy back in season. But it's hard to bet against the track record that the Twins have. I'm also excited to see the new 2^nd baseman they imported from Japan. X-Factor is Joe Nathan. How effective can/will he be in his first year after surgery? If he is not effective The White Sox will win this division. The Tigers made a few good moves, but outside of Verlander they don't have the pitching. Brad Penny anyone?

AL West- Oakland Athletics (94-68)

Billy Beane has constructed a Great bullpen, acquired some offense with Willingham, Dejesus, and Matsui, and their pitching is young but very impressive. I'm not sure why I have them winning this division but they have above average starting and relief pitching and the three bats they added will really add some punch to that lineup. X-Factor is Brett Anderson. He has Ace stuff on the mound but can he stay healthy? If he makes 30-40 starts they'll win this division if he doesn't it's going to be tough.

AL Wildcard- Tampa Bay Rays (93-69)

This is absolutely going to be a dog fight between the Rays, Yanks, and Rangers. I bet this will go down to the last week into September, with the Rangers fading, and the Yankees having to play a one game playoff with the Rays. Originally I had the Rangers winning but in light of recent moves by the genius front office in St Petersburg I am giving the nod to the Tampa. They signed Damon, and Manny came along in a package deal (Ahem…Boras…Ahem). Damon had a way with Manny to keep him calm and if Manny wants to play past this year he is going to play with a better attitude. But their previously anemic offense just got a little more pop, and this also allows their prized possession Desmond Jennings to get a little more seasoning in AAA and then make the push for a June call up to keep his service time down. X-Factor is Jeremy Hellickson. He has just been handed a rotation spot with the Garza trade and they will need him to contribute if they want to win this Wild Card.

NL East- Philadelphia Phillies (103-59)

This is the first legitimate rotation that could actually beat out Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz in a series that's how scary good they have it. I don't see anyone else in their division this year as competition. The Braves will be alright but it would be a monumental upset and I just don't see it with Halladay and Cliff Lee pitching in September letting that team lose. X-Factor for their chance at domination is Jimmy Rollins. He had a statistical down year and was riddled with injuries, and he is the spark to that offense that did hit some peaks and valleys last year.

NL Central- St. Louis Cardinals (90-72)

There is a legitimate 3 team race in the Central and I am one of the few believers that Lance Berkman is going to have a bounce back year. Carpenter in a Contract Year, Pujols in a contract year, and Wainwright just being an animal? Yup you had me at "Play Ball". Cincinnatti I am anticipating taking a BIG step back this year, I think Rolen is not going to be as productive as he was last year, Renteria is a shell of himself, and while their pitching is solid I don't think their offense will be as potent as last year.

NL West- Los Angeles Dodgers (92-70)

What was the biggest problem with the Dodgers last year? Their pitching was garbage. They have fixed that in a BIG way. Their rotation has depth with Garland and Padilla vying for the 5^th spot, Kershaw, Billingsley and Lilly as a top 3 is reliable as long as Billingsley stays healthy. They have depth at most of the positions and Uribe is going to pay dividends for them in the playoffs. They also sured up their bullpen which was in shambles last year. X-Factor is Jonathan Broxton and the health of Chad Billingsley. Broxton had the closers job yanked from him, so he's going to need to step up. Billingsley's health is essential for their success. He is dominant at times but hopefully he comes into spring training in shape and ready to dominate.

NL Wild Card- Milwaukee Brewers (88-74)

They are clearly in "win-now" mode, Prince in a contract year. Zack Greinke, Yovanni Gallardo, and Shawn Marcum is a great triumvirate of pitching. Their bullpen is a question mark for me, but I think they do enough to get in the post season. I'd like to see Prince in the post season one more time to jack up the price for his free agent year. X-Factor is their bullpen. If their bullpen is solid I think their offense is very good.

Let me know what you think, I'd love to give more of an argument for any of my picks.

Stay Tuned

Ryan

The BBWAA is a J-O-K-E

Yup, now you've done it. I done, just got pissed off. Jeff Bagwell, whose stats are INARGUABLY Hall of Fame worthy was just left off the ballot for absolutely no reason. He got a paltry 41.7% of the votes. Less than half. This is an absolute outrage. Here are his numbers along with his most comparable offensive players:

Sim Player From To Yrs G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG SB CS OPS+

Jeff Bagwell 1991-2005 15 2150 7797 1517 2314 488 32 449 1529 1401 1558 .297 .408 .540 202 78 149

887 Chipper Jones
1993-2010 17 2261 8142 1505 2490 493 37 436 1491 1404 1278 .306 .405 .536 147 44 142

879 Carlos Delgado
1993-2009 17 2035 7283 1241 2038 483 18 473 1512 1109 1745 .280 .383 .546 14 8 138

874 Frank Thomas 1990-2008 19 2322 8199 1494 2468 495 12 521 1704 1667 1397 .301 .419 .555 32 23 156

865 Fred McGriff 1986-2004 19 2460 8757 1349 2490 441 24 493 1550 1305 1882 .284 .377 .509 72 38 134

844 Andres Galarraga 1985-2004 19 2257 8096 1195 2333 444 32 399 1425 583 2003 .288 .347 .499 128 81 118

843* Willie Stargell 1962-1982 21 2360 7927 1195 2232 423 55 475 1540 937 1936 .282 .360 .529 17 16 147

832 Vladimir Guerrero
1996-2010 15 2002 7593 1268 2427 447 45 436 1433 720 929 .320 .383 .563 179 92 143

825* Orlando Cepeda 1958-1974 17 2124 7927 1131 2351 417 27 379 1365 588 1169 .297 .350 .499 142 80 133

820 Jason Giambi
1995-2010 16 2039 6801 1176 1914 385 9 415 1365 1297 1435 .281 .405 .524 20 11 142

817 Jim Thome
1991-2010 20 2392 7982 1534 2216 428 26 589 1624 1679 2395 .278 .404 .559 19 20 147

*denotes Hall of Famer

First off if 20% of your comparable players are Hall of Famers chances are you are as well. Also Chipper Jones, Vladimir Guerrero and Jim Thome are all SURE FIRE HOFers as well so you're looking at 50% of your closest comparisons are in the Mecca of all baseball. Not to mention fringe HOFers like Frank Thomas (should be elected), Fred McGriff (not in my opinion), and Carlos Delgado (should fall just short). Going by a strictly stats based argument, Bagwell bests or equals Orlando Cepeda and Willie Stargell in just about every offensive category, and it should be noted in 2 fewer seasons (Cepeda) and 6 fewer seasons (Stargell). Oh weird that little * denotes a Hall of Famer…strange.

Newsflash to everyone baseball had an era known as the Steroid Era. *shudders uncontrollably*

Newsflash to everyone people played baseball in this era as well.

There are players such as Barry Bonds, Rafael Palmeiro, Roger Clemens, Manny Ramirez and many others that played during this era all with Hall of Fame caliber numbers, but here's the difference between those players and Jeff Bagwell: They were all tied in one way or another to performance enhancing drugs, while He was not. And now by some forgone conclusion with the Baseball Writers Association of America they are going to play judge and assume each player is guilty until proven innocent. Well that's a crock of shit, and by this logic NO ONE IN THIS ERA WILL GET VOTED IN FIRST BALLOT.

That Means:

Pedro Martinez, the most dominating pitcher through the Steroid Era is in fact a fraud and does not deserve to get in based on when he played.

Derek Jeter, the posterboy for everything good in baseball doesn't get in despite obtaining just about every Yankee record and leading them to multiple World Championships because he played when BSB was a hot commodity.

Randy Johnson, the most intimidating pitcher, 300 game winner and arguably best lefty of a decade gets left out.

Smoltz, Glavine, and Maddux? Nope

Albert Pujols? Definitely not.

Do you see what these malignants are doing? How can someone be guilty with vehement denials, no evidence pointing at him and no failed drug tests? Simple: he's not and his career is getting martyred because of some people's ignorance. "Look at me, I wrote about baseball for 10 years, therefore I know all and whatever decision I make is therefore the right decision."

That's the criteria to be able to vote for the Hall of Fame, is to have written about baseball for 10 years in a newspaper or some sort of mass media outlet.

Somehow because he was a power hitting first baseman when Boyz II Men was on your cassette player, he is all of a sudden guilty of cheating with no evidence against him. I think this is horseshit and would love to hear any BBWAA member's defense against not voting for him. Here is what the BBWAA judges for criteria:

Voting shall be based upon the player's record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played.

Playing ability: Top Notch (ranked as the 4^th best First baseman OF ALL TIME by renowned baseball statistician Bill James in 2001's "New Historical Baseball Abstract")

Integrity: Never in any scandals (steroids, performance enhancers, or cheating of any kind)

Sportsmanship: Always one of the most respected players by managers and players in era.

Character/ contributions: Started a charity in the only city he ever played (15 years in Houston) called Rapid Rehousing to combat homelessness.

OK That's not enough for you, and you're looking for the "black ink" on his resume, or the awards, here ya go.

Highlights

• NL MVP: 1994
  
• NL Rookie of the Year: 1991
  
• NL All-Star: 1994, 1996, 1997, 1999
  
• Gold Glove Award (1B): 1994
  
• Silver Slugger Awards (1B): 1994, 1997, 1999
  
• Houston Astros Career Leader in Home Runs (449), RBI (1,529), Walks (1,401), Runs Created (1,715), Sacrifice Flies (102) and Intentional Walks (155).
  
• Holds Houston Astros single season records for Batting Average (.368 in 1994), On-base percentage (.454 in 1999), Slugging Percentage (.750 in 1994), OPS (1.201 in 1994), Runs (152 in 2000), Total Bases (363 in 2000), Home Runs (47 in 2000), Walks (149 in 1999), Times on Base (331 in 1999), Intentional Walks (27 in 1997) and At Bats per Home Run (10.3 in 1994)
  
• Baseball statistician Bill James, in his New Historical Baseball Abstract, listed Bagwell as the fourth best first baseman of all time.
  

I would also suggest you read that clip I put in above about denying steroid use because he talks about working out all the time and when his trainer's told him to stop doing different lifts because it would hinder his flexibility and elasticity in his arm he didn't listen to them. So he worked out and tried to get better naturally and not through a syringe and he is getting penalized for what, working too hard? If you're the BBWAA is this sort of saying, "I want you to be a good player, but not too good, or else I'll personally knock you down a peg".

Simply put, this was one of the good guys in this sport and you just gave him the big F You, I hope you feel good about yourself because I didn't even get the HONOR of voting and I feel like someone just ran over my dog, backed up and ran over it again. I can only imagine how BagPipes and his family feel on what should have been a momentous day. This is a travesty of gargantuan proportions and the Writers should be ashamed of themselves.

Stay Tuned

Ryan