"Oh my god we're back again" By now I'm sure you've heard that the Red Sox signed Bobby Jenks to a 2-year 12 million dollar deal. First off, I LOVE THIS MOVE. But then I thought this guy has been a closer his entire career. He closed 27 of 31 last year; he throws strikes like you read about, and has a ground ball rate greater than 50%. So what is he doing signing with the Boston Red Sox, when the Sox have all-world, tougher than nails, wants to set the market for closers, Jonathan Papelbon? *rolls eyes*
This means one of two things. The first thing this could mean that Theo has compiled an onslaught of power arms for the 7th, 8th and 9th innings and that he is prepared to let Papelbon walk after 2011. If it is in fact the stable of laser, rocket arms; this is exactly how you build a bullpen. ( Reliable Closer, Long man, one lefty, and 2-3 power arms.) This is also "closer insurance" if Papelbon gets hurt during the year and when (not if) Papelbon leaves after 2011. I refuse to believe that Jenks signed here without ever having the possibility of closing, when he could have signed with the Rays, potentially the Rangers if they wanted to move Feliz to the rotation, or a handful of other clubs that needed a closer.
The second thing this could mean is that Papelbon is on the block. Jon Heyman reported earlier that he keeps hearing rumblings involving Papelbon's name. I don't know what you get for someone in his situation (a 5th year arbitration case, who intends to be the highest paid closer) but if they do then this is exactly what I thought they'd do, BLOW UP THIS PEN. They've already gotten rid of Ram-Ram, Delcarmen, and Okajima. Papelbon would be the last of the bunch. As a group last year they walked so many batters that it was almost impossible to win ballgames and a wonder they won as many as they did. What they're doing now is signing guys that challenge hitters and put the ball over the plate. Because as we know, you can't defend the walk.
Going back to what I said earlier about how you build a bullpen let's look at what they have out there.
Reliable Closer- Say what you want about my use of the word reliable, but despite Papelbon's decline in velocity, and uptick in walks, ERA and WHIP he has been one of the top 5 closers in baseball the last 5 years.
Long Reliever- Tim Wakefield, I wish he'd just retire but I suppose he's good for one more year knowing he is the mop up/spot start guy and gets rid of that my shit don't stink entitlement attitude.
Lefty- This is Felix Doubront's spot to lose but when the Sox re-sign Rich Hill he could give him a run for his money being more familiar with the Reliever position and the act that Doubront has options left.
Power Arms- Off the top of my head I can't think of a better Set-Up man than Daniel Bard so he's the only non question mark in the bunch
Bobby Jenks could be one of the best signing in recent memory if he takes to the set-up roll/ 7th inning slot but after a down year he isn't a sure thing
Matt Albers can throw the shit out of the ball but has been pretty inconsistent thus far in his career this is a make or break year for him as far as turning "stuff" into stats.
According to sources the Sox just reached a deal with Andrew Miller who will compete with Albers and/or Doubront for the final spot in the bullpen, but a lefty that throws 96, if the Sox can get him to be more consistent in the zone he's absolutely going to be a weapon, think Matt Thornton.
I'll give my prediction as to what I think will actually happen in just a second, but let's look at who the potential trade suitors could be.
Los Angeles Dodgers- The Dodgers couldn't figure out Jonathan Broxton last year and wonder if they'd invest in a different closer with their McCourt Divorce finally coming to a close. A Papelbon for Broxton swap with maybe the sox throwing in some Cash considerations? I don't think that's out of the question.
Texas Rangers- They have been talking about getting Neftali Feliz's wing in the starting rotation and if they don't get another starter I wonder if Papelbon to Texas maybe for like Michael Young or someone like that and then Young plays short, which would then require a Scutaro trade. Michael Young makes about 16 mil annually but is also on the hook for next year too, that would take some tweaking as far as money.
St. Louis Cardinals- Once again there would have to be some configuring with money because I don't think there is a bad contract that they have the Sox would want to take on, but the Cardinals closer Ryan Franklin said he wants to retire after his contract.
Atlanta Braves- This would be out of character for them but with Billy Wagner retiring and Takashi Saito being horrible, they may want to think about it, and Papelbon dominates the NL.
If I had to venture a guess I say Papelbon will still be a Red Sox come Spring Training because the Red Sox may subscribe to the contract year theory with regards to his upcoming performance. But this new addition to the bullpen is another great piece to what looks to be a promising 2011.
Stay Tuned
Ryan
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