Get the Chopping Block

No coach/manager/GM likes to make cuts but when players are forcing their employer's hands the Boston Red Sox were made to cut a 15 year player in the league. Mike Cameron was designated for assignment and he will not be back with the Boston, yet the Sox are still paying out 3+ million throughout the rest of the year. This signing could go down as the all-around worst signing of the Theo regime. I would put this above Lackey and JD Drew, and right on par with Julio Lugo and Edgar Renteria.

Let's think about everything that went into this signing. A bunch of stat head's told Theo that Cameron's UZR was better than Jacoby Ellsbury's so they tried to justify shifting 'Ells' to left field, and essentially nullifying the one true talent he was blessed with, speed. So you have a 37-year-old (at the time of signing) that just got let go by the Brewers, patrolling one of the largest outfields in baseball, and you've moved the younger 26-year old player to left. Because of this move Jacoby Ellsbury met Adrian Beltre and you lost your leadoff hitter for the entire year. Cameron got injured because, here's a shocker, he's 37 friggin years old, so we lost 2/3 of the starting outfield and were scrambling to play catch up before the beginning of May. I'm all for occasionally throwing shit up against the wall hoping it sticks, but you signed a 37 year old that hadn't produced like he used to in 4 years, for not one but 2 years. Oh, not only 2 years but at 7 million per year. Let's put that into perspective, that's more than Adrian Gonzalez, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury and Jon Lester have made in each of the last 2 years. Alas, I firmly believe you are worth what someone is willing to pay you.

Coming into this year, Mike Cameron's job was to be a platoon player in right and just rake on lefties this year but he's hitting well below (.143) the Mendoza Line against southpaws and his defense this year hasn't been anything like he's used to. Because of his albatross of a salary, lack of production at the plate, and clearly declining range in the outfield he is the quintessential meaning of "no trade value".

Some people have asked me why you DFA Cameron instead of a lower salaried, non-established player. My answer is that I don't think their done extracting from their roster. I think once Crawford comes back, the corresponding move will be to DFA McDonald as well. Their skill-set was too redundant and neither of them have any value but I would say that the reason you keep Darnell now is that McDonald's defense has been better this year than the Gold Glover's, McDonald has a better track record of producing with limited playing time, and McDonald has a step on the old man if it came down to stealing a base. It basically came down to who has sucked more. After realizing that no one AT ALL would take on any part of a dead 3+ million dollars it made sense to cut ties. For some reason his pride says that he can/should still be a starter in this league (his bat speed disagrees, ZING!) and on this team he is not going to get his desired playing time.

Going forward the Red Sox still have needs and issues in Right Field, potentially Shortstop, the starting rotation, and a late inning power reliever.

• Looks can be deceiving but from 2007-2010 Drew has actually been one of the most productive Right fielders in the game. But in 2011 he has been one of the worst. To the point, where the Red Sox production in right field between Drew, Cameron and McDonald is last in Major League Baseball. However, conflicting reports about the Red Sox ability to add payroll if needed at the deadline. And for the first time I can't say that I blame them with regards to right field. Ownership just this year had 21 million dollars invested in right field between Drew and Cameron and I doubt they feel comfortable allocating any more funds to that black hole. This player will probably be right handed. The names that are surfacing are Michael Cuddyer (his versatility makes this a great move if they could), Josh Willingham ( This would cost more in prospects than Cuddyer because of the lower salary, but he can hit), and Ryan Spillborghs (I'd rather catch AIDS).
  


• Jed Lowrie's shoulder appears to be worse than expected and his annual inability to not keep himself on the field really is starting to become a burden for his career and this team. I don't think Marco Scutaro can be the SS for a World Series winning team. I think you may see a move here whether it's calling up 'The Kid' or making a move for a SS not named Jose Reyes.
  


• Bobby Jenks' health and ineffectiveness must be weighing on Theo's mind. So much so that he needs another reliever and I think this solution comes internally. When Buchholz comes back presumably after the All-Star Break you have a logjam in the rotation with Beckett, Buchholz, Lester, Lackey, Wakefield, Miller. I think Miller moves into the pen and spot starts occasionally if someone needs rest or gets injured and then you have two power lefties with Morales and Miller. Wakefield's value is not out of the 'pen it is eating innings as a starter. Lackey is a mental midget and if you put him in the bullpen you will lose him for the rest of the year, and probably for the duration of his contract.
  

One of the final things that has been stuck in my craw lately is the constant bitching, woe is me garbage they are doling out in their interviews with regards to interleague play. Kevin Youkilis saying, "It's not fair that we have to play without our DH". When Papi isn't hitting, this isn't a big deal, but all of a sudden he starts hitting again, and we need to "pump his tires" like he's Ted goddamn Williams. Please. The Boston Red Sox are not at a disadvantage against ANY TEAM. It is the rules. For 9 games in a row the DH can't play, its part of your schedule, it has been for 14 years, deal with it. The constant whining is not becoming as a player and I don't like it as a fan. The whole Gonzalez to right field debate (if we had a workable right fielder) shouldn't have been up for discussion. You keep the AL MVP at first base, and you tell David to sit on the bench till the 7^th, 8^th or 9^th when you will pinch hit every game. That's what should have happens. The constant Ortiz fellatiating is really getting tiresome. Thanks for '04 and you're still an important member of the team, but when the rules say that you're "position" isn't allowed to play that day, then shut your jib, and ride the pine until the manager says to swing a stick. Rant done.

Stay Tuned

Norton

Where Does the Time Go?

Hey there, Hi there, Ho there! Since the last time I've posted the Red Sox have literally been to hell and back (2-10 anyone?), Osama bin Laden got shot (IN THE FACE), and I got married (women's fantasies and dreams just died everywhere). But this here is a baseball blog so, 'tis what we're going to discuss.

It is said that you take the first 2 months to evaluate your team, the second 2 months to improve your team, and the final 2 months to reap what you've sewn. Well, what Theo Epstein has created here is a machine, with the best record in baseball and currently riding a 9-game "Back up off my shit" winning streak. Not just beating opponents but embarrassing them. Outscoring Toronto 36-5 in a 3 game series. Making the Yankees lack of pitching staff look like a Little League squad. And taking one of the Top 3 pitching staffs in baseball and sweeping them at home to start the streak off.

All this being said the first two months of the season have come and gone and it's time to ponder what the Red Sox need, going into the playoff stretch. Theo Epstein, during his tenure, has made it a habit of making a blockbuster, pulling the wool over everyone's eyes, or slinging a bunch of shit up against a wall and hoping some of it sticks. I personally think he's about to do a little bit of all of them. Right now the Sox have a few issues on their team: the skeleton that is JD Drew in Right Field, their SS defense, and one more arm in the bullpen because Bobby Jenks right now can't be counted on to be healthy and he's a question mark when he is healthy.

1. JD Drew is an issue. His defense has been OK, but he is definitely not getting the jumps on balls in the outfield that he used to and that is part of what makes his lack of consistency at the plate at least palatable. If he doesn't pick it up, he needs to go. Insert Carlos Beltran. The Mets are obviously in disarray financially from their previous owner and any salary relief would probably be welcomed. What do you think it would take to get him? Glad you asked! I think if you give them an expiring contract in JD Drew (14 mil) and Jed Lowrie (450K) the Amazins' would be foolish not to take the deal with Beltran at 17.5 million. Beltran who is finally healthy and swinging the bat with authority once again provides the Sox with flexibility (switch-hitter) and ability to play Right Field, and a proven track record of producing in the playoffs. Get him Theo, make it happen!
   
2. You may be thinking, you just gave away our starting shortstop, surely you don't think we should make Marco Scutaro our new 6. You are correct I don't think that. It's time to call up "The Kid". In a move reminiscent to the 2004 uber-blockbuster, getting rid of a past his prime shortstop for a defensive whiz to sure up your defense it's time to call up Jose Iglesias. For everyone that says, "He doesn't have enough seasoning as a hitter in the minor leagues". I DON'T CARE. Look at the juggernaut this offense is when it's clicking. If you don't make an error from July 31 until November and you can manage to hit .225, WINNING. That's when it's time to call him up. This lineup became a force when Jason Varitek, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Carl Crawford became viable with the sticks. When they are not automatic outs in the lineup, one through nine it's scary the productivity they can create.
   
3. The Bobby Jenks move was a GREAT signing, in theory. Get another power arm to shut down guys in the late innings on days when Daniel Bard is unavailable. That is the EXACT thing that they should be doing, the Red Sox need to find someone. If Reddick can continue to rake down in AAA he's going to build himself some SERIOUS trade value and will get himself a chance to play on a major league team elsewhere because he's not going to play here with this outfield core and Kalish in the wings. Look for someone such as Matt Capps, Joakim Soria, or Evan Meek IF AND ONLY IF Bobby Jenks can't come back healthy and be effective. Also, put me in the camp that thinks Franklin Morales is going to play a HUGE role down the stretch for the Boston Red Sox. Curt Young has a history of turning projects and young pitchers into successful, strike-throwing machines.
   

On the off chance, and I mean VERY OFF CHANCE, you think I'm wrong or I'm missing something let me know what you think. I'd gladly hear and give you my two-cents on the 2011 Boston Red Sox.

Just a couple un-related side notes:

• Dwayne Wade is the best player on the Heat, not LeBron James. He has the killer instinct of a Jordan and a Kobe, where LeBron is just Origami, folds under pressure.
  
• You can call it "Heat-Hating" if you want but honestly I've never seen a bigger pussy than Chris Bosh. His emotional collapse at the end of GAME 6, not even a game 7, was literally the lamest thing I've ever seen from a professional athlete.
  
• Dirk Nowitzki, wow.
  
• Up until the past year, I've never been much of a hockey fan. It's been all baseball all the time. But the Bruins and the entire 2011 playoff run has been one of the most compelling things I've seen since the "4 Nights in October" that the Red Sox took 4 in a row from the Yankees.
  
• Tim Thomas is one of the most unintentionally funny guys I've ever heard interviewed.
  
• Saw The Hangover: Part II, my expert opinion says, Wait until it comes out on video, unless you really like Chicks with Dicks.
  
• Justin Timberlake is STILL the best host on SNL in the last 10 years.
  

Stay Tuned

Norton

 

 

The BEST TEAM EVER Assembled

So, this is what we've been waiting since last September to behold. This team has issues but everyone freaking out about a magnified 4 game losing streak needs to take a step back. The Red Sox are not THIS BAD. But we do need to fix some things:

The Lineup- First and foremost we need some continuity and stability in this lineup and it's weird to say that the Red Sox highest paid players shouldn't be in the Top 5 in the lineup. The lineup is obviously lefty heavy but when you face 75% righties throughout the year it will even itself out.

Here's how it should go:

Ellsbury-CF

Pedroia-2B

Gonzalez-1B

Youkilis-3B

Ortiz-DH

Crawford-LF

Lowrie-SS (More on this to come)

Drew/Cameron-RF (Depending on Pitching)

Saltalamacchia-C

Carl Crawford is not a 3-Hitter on a big market team, whether he is hitting or not. He is not the best hitter on this team. That title goes to one, Adrian Gonzalez. Gonzalez needs to bat 3^rd and be in the Top 3 in at bats on this team, stop moving him. Crawford is ideally a 1, 2, or 6 hitter. But his OBP makes him a liability to hit leadoff, and he has gone on record saying he doesn't care for it. Ok, so that leaves 2^nd or 6^th. Dustin Pedroia has the 2^nd spot locked for the duration of his tenure in Boston so that spot is out, which leaves us with 6^th. You may ask why not 5^th. Because traditionally the 5^th spot is for a guy that primarily hits for power and not so much average, that pigeonholes Ortiz to a T, and with a career high of 19 HRs Crawford isn't going to cut it. The 6 hole is where he stays and may actually take enough pressure off of him because as meticulous as his work ethic is, he seems a little too awestruck with the attention he is getting in Boston.

This may actually be the biggest beef I have with Terry Francona since he started here. Anyone that knows me knows I am an avid Francona supporter. But, if Jed Lowrie isn't given this shortstop job by the beginning of May I may honestly not watch the team anymore. Watching Scutaro labor after balls and come up 2 inches shy on a dive every goddamn time is making me want to lay down naked in front of a lawnmower after taking a handful of Viagra. Lowrie's 2^nd half OPS last year was not a fluke and it is right in line with his performance when he was healthy in the minors. He is not a world beater at short, but his range and arm strength is far superior to Scutaro's and should at least be able to hold the fort down until Iglesias is ready to take over the position.

Starting Pitching- In no way shape or form do I think the starting rotation is this bad. Especially with the creepy obsession I have with our lone SouthPaw on the staff. But that being said, we must pitch better. Lester needs to find a way to get rid of his annual April funk. He's too good to be inconsistent for a month every year. It not only costs his team but is costing him hardware that could have won him a couple Cy Young Awards. Lackey needs to stop leaving the ball in the middle of the plate and then wonder why he gets his tits lit every time he toes the slab. Clay Buchholz gave up 5 hits, 4 for home runs. He actually didn't pitch as poorly as his stat line would indicate, that being said he needs to stop elevating his fastball and keep that 2-seam handy to get out of jams like he did in 2010. Josh Beckett was good for 2 innings and mediocre at best for 3. His final 3 frames he pitched from behind in the count in literally 75% of the batters. It's hard to set hitters up when they are almost always in fastball counts. I was encouraged to see him incorporating his change up back in his repertoire. Daisuke Matsuzaka is and will continue to be a #5 starter on the Red Sox and any win he gives us I will consider a bonus, but he needs to work on his fastball more often than working off of his off speed because when he actually throws his fastball for strikes he's dangerous, (see the near no-no in Philly last year). The staff will turn around, it can't get much worse right?

BONEHEAD PLAYS- There has been a lot of uncharacteristic plays for Red Sox players.

Carl Crawford missing a cutoff man in Cleveland giving up a VERY valuable second base, which lead to giving up the lead is unacceptable. Baseball 101, hit your goddamn cutoff man, 20 mil, alright?

Terry Francona not calling Jarrod Saltalamacchia back in the 7^th inning of Sunday night's game, when you have supposed Lefty Mashers on your bench in Mike Cameron and Jason Varitek was a major guffaw. I don't care that you're trying to get your starting catcher going, he was 0 for 9 going into that at bat, he hadn't had ANY good swings all weekend, and then he goes up and swings at the first pitch. Double Bonehead on Tito for letting him hit, and Salty for not at least working the count.

I'm not willing to call it a mulligan but outside of perhaps Adrian Gonzalez and Dustin Pedroia, no one looked ready to play this weekend. I'm not one to usually remark about people's weight, but Kevin Youkilis needs to find a way to trim down the spare tire. He needs to be agile at 3^rd base and he's looking more like Pablo Sandoval than Evan Longoria, not a good trait when you're on the wrong side of 30.

There have been some positives that I have seen in the first 4 games however.

• My pick of Adrian Gonzalez for MVP looks alright as long as the Sox can put together some wins throughout the season. He is a better hitter than advertised.
  
• Other than Bard's hiccup I like how this Bullpen looks, Albers is a weapon, and despite my concern for Papelbon he got in trouble and got out of it without giving up a run. It is not a good recipe for success to have Tim Wakefield throwing in 2 out of 3 games though, just sayin'.
  
• Jacoby Ellsbury looks phenomenal at the plate right now. I will still contest that he shied up on that ball in Centerfield on Saturday night because he saw JD Drew, and he definitely should have caught it, but at the plate he is locked in and it is good to see a table setter, actually setting the table.
  
• Pedroia's health was paramount for me at this season's inception, and he not only looks like the Pedroia of old but is on a mission to absolutely annihilate anyone that gets in his way. The heart and soul of the team is back, and I for one couldn't be happier for him.
  

In an ideal world we would be .500 right now but we aren't we are 4 games back of the Orioles for first place. It would be probably the biggest choke job of all time for a team with this much talent to not be in the thick of things come September and October. So I'm going to sit tight and wait through the first two months to seriously evaluate this team. But playing stupid baseball is not going to help this team, who has suddenly turned their lonely eyes to Daisuke Matsuzaka for an attempt at their first win of the season. Not the way we drew it up, my confidence in him is about the same as in our piss poor Commander in Chief, but he's out only hope for a win the first time through the rotation, and we need him.

Stay Tuned

Ryan

 

Baseball on my Mind

Official workouts start today and baseball is at the forefront of my mind in more ways than one. But I've been thinking a LOT lately about all the current issues in baseball and here's what I got:

• Albert Pujols' Contract situation- He can't leave St. Louis. They won't let it happen. He is one of the Top 5 players in baseball of all time! They would be crazy to let him go despite the validity questions about his age. This deal will get done, or at least the framework to a deal will be done by the deadline. 8 years 240 mil is my guess at this contract.
  
• For every Red Sox fan that blatantly likes to see the Yankees crumble you should start salivating when you hear CC Sabathia basically say he's going to Opt out of his contract with the opt out clause that he strategically put in there 3 years (and a weak free agent pitching class) after his initial signing. If he leaves, they won't win the division for a LONG time.
  
• I have been trying to think of an over/under on which new acquisition Heidi Watney sleeps with first in 2011.
  

1. Carl Crawford (4/1)
   
2. Jarrod Saltalamacchia (6/1)
   
3. Bobby Jenks (7/1)
   
4. Dan Wheeler (15/2)
   
5. Adrian Gonzalez (40/3)
   

• On a Watney related side note, players from other teams are now trying to Shmooze into our Watney and Red Sox Nation should have none of it! Yes JP Arencibia I'm talking to you!
  

  
  

• I could not be happier to have Joe Morgan off the airwaves on Sunday Night Baseball. Schulman, Valentine and Hershiser will be a breath of fresh air. And I for one am glad to not hear a mic'd up Joe Morgan talking to Robinson Cano every time the Yankees are on SNB.
  
• The Brewers and Athletics have a legitimate chance to be SCARY good.
  

Pre-Season Awards Predictions-

American League MVP- Adrian Gonzalez (.320 avg, 48 HRs, 145RBI)

I don't believe the hype, because it's not hype, he is going from a cavernous park where he hits 40 dingers to essentially a Little League field. I, like Buster Olney, think he's going to put up the most ridiculous numbers you have seen since the pre-steroid testing era.

American League Cy Young- Brett Anderson (21-8, 2.95 ERA, 205Ks)

This is a gamble here especially when Jon Lester is going to plow through everyone and I know it here. But the eye test tells me that this is going to be the year Anderson stays healthy and puts up MONSTER numbers and establishes himself as the Ace of the Oakland Athletics.

American League Rookie of the Year- Jeremy Hellickson ( 13-9 4.10 ERA, 170Ks)

This kid is a stud. With the trade of Matt Garza he has essentially been given the number 5 spot and I could see him vaulting up into a higher spot in the rotation as the season goes along. He's a rookie so he should hit his bumps but a 13-9 season in the AL East as a rookie is like going 17-6 in the AL West.

American League Comeback Player of the Year- Justin Morneau (.280 avg, 31 HRs, 109 RBI)

He played half a season last year and the lineup definitely lacked that deep threat (yet again) against the Yankees in the first round. I think he comes back on a mission for the Twinkies.

AL Sleeper(s)- Derek Holland or Jed Lowrie

Holland is a power lefty for Texas that is going to desperately need some people in their rotation to step up with the absence of Cliff Lee, and Holland has shown a few flashes of brilliance and this could be the year he picks it up. I am convinced at some point the Red Sox will hand the job over to Jed Lowrie who looks to finally be healthy from his bout with every disease spanning from Rickets to Polio.

AL Stinker(s)- Torri Hunter

I think this is finally the year we see Torri Hunter dip. He already made the move to a corner outfield position and while his career has been spectacular I'm sensing this is the end for his run at being elite.

National League MVP- Andre Ethier (.338 avg, 38 HRs, 131 RBI)

Every year it's Pujols' award to lose. That being said, I think this is the year that Andre Ethier announces his presence with authority and really becomes a force to be reckoned with in the National League and gets the hardware to come along with it. He is the prototypical #3 hitter and the Dodgers have a stud on their hands.

National League Cy Young- Cole Hamels (20-9, 3.10 ERA, 189Ks)

Cole Hamels is the number 4 pitcher in the Phillies rotation and if he's matched up against most other teams 4's and 5's throughout the year, he's going to rack up a LOT of wins.

National League Rookie of the Year- Freddie Freeman (.278 avg, 26 HRs, 81 RBI)

He's Jayson Heyward's roommate and is one of the most highly touted prospects in the nation. He will fit right in with the Atlanta Braves.

National League Comeback Player of the Year- Chipper Jones (.288 avg, 19 HRs, 89 RBI)

Chipper is back for one last hurrah and I think he's going to go out on top and cement himself as one of the top 2 switch hitters of all time.

NL Sleeper- Jose Reyes

He's ranked pretty high in fantasy baseball standings so I don't know how much of a sleeper he is but he is in the best physical condition that he has been in, in 3 years, and it's the dreaded contract year, look for him to have a very productive year to land him a mega-deal.

NL Stinker- Roy Oswalt

I don't know why but for some reason I HATE Roy Oswalt in Citizen's Bank Park. I know he pitched in a small park before but something about that fit doesn't seem right to me and there's no way all 4 of those horses perform right? I'd say look for him to have a VERY mediocre year.

That's what I got for you guys for now, but as always if you need to contact me email and the comments section are always good.

Stay Tuned

Ryan

Prediction Time

I'll be honest last year was difficult as far as predictions go. I got 4/8 playoff teams and I acted a bit of a homer, and didn't take into account the baseball acumen that people flock to this blog to accumulate themselves. Beckett has not performed in an even year since he was with the Marlins. Lackey I should have taken into account the jump to the AL East (look at Beckett's first season here). These are things that I knew and didn't put into my thinking last year and frankly I'm ashamed that I wasn't better, for you all.

Imagine me speaking in my Coolio voice here, Awww here it goes:

AL East- Boston Red Sox (100-62)

This looks familiar but Presumably Beckett can't pitch any worse than he did last year when he channeled Way Back Wasdin far too much. Lackey has had a year of seasoning in the AL East and if he is the pitcher we thought when we acquired him, will not only pitch better but have a plan when he goes on the mound more this year. But this offense just got a violent shove into DYNAMIC. We added the best free agent player on the market in Carl Crawford and got an offensive and defensive juggernaut to man first base, Gonzalez. If he doesn't hit 50 home runs this year with 81 games in this ball park and 19 or so at Yankee Stadium I will honestly declare this a down year for him. Lester will be Lester, bottom line. Daisuke is what he is, an enigma but for a 5^th starter I guess I have to deal with his nibbling. X-Factor is Clay Buchholz. If he has any semblance of the year that he had last year our rotation will be tough to win a 7 game series against, but I am worried about the Verducci Effect with him so he could go either way, but I do expect a slight regression.

AL Central- Minnesota Twins (92-70)

They win it every year, sometimes they shouldn't but Liriano is now a full year removed from his surgery and hopefully ready to step in as the ace. All systems are a go finally for Justin Morneau, and they finally resigned Pavano, who is pitching in the perfect park for his "stuff". This is a risky pick to me because the White Sox look good on paper for me, and they'll get Peavy back in season. But it's hard to bet against the track record that the Twins have. I'm also excited to see the new 2^nd baseman they imported from Japan. X-Factor is Joe Nathan. How effective can/will he be in his first year after surgery? If he is not effective The White Sox will win this division. The Tigers made a few good moves, but outside of Verlander they don't have the pitching. Brad Penny anyone?

AL West- Oakland Athletics (94-68)

Billy Beane has constructed a Great bullpen, acquired some offense with Willingham, Dejesus, and Matsui, and their pitching is young but very impressive. I'm not sure why I have them winning this division but they have above average starting and relief pitching and the three bats they added will really add some punch to that lineup. X-Factor is Brett Anderson. He has Ace stuff on the mound but can he stay healthy? If he makes 30-40 starts they'll win this division if he doesn't it's going to be tough.

AL Wildcard- Tampa Bay Rays (93-69)

This is absolutely going to be a dog fight between the Rays, Yanks, and Rangers. I bet this will go down to the last week into September, with the Rangers fading, and the Yankees having to play a one game playoff with the Rays. Originally I had the Rangers winning but in light of recent moves by the genius front office in St Petersburg I am giving the nod to the Tampa. They signed Damon, and Manny came along in a package deal (Ahem…Boras…Ahem). Damon had a way with Manny to keep him calm and if Manny wants to play past this year he is going to play with a better attitude. But their previously anemic offense just got a little more pop, and this also allows their prized possession Desmond Jennings to get a little more seasoning in AAA and then make the push for a June call up to keep his service time down. X-Factor is Jeremy Hellickson. He has just been handed a rotation spot with the Garza trade and they will need him to contribute if they want to win this Wild Card.

NL East- Philadelphia Phillies (103-59)

This is the first legitimate rotation that could actually beat out Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz in a series that's how scary good they have it. I don't see anyone else in their division this year as competition. The Braves will be alright but it would be a monumental upset and I just don't see it with Halladay and Cliff Lee pitching in September letting that team lose. X-Factor for their chance at domination is Jimmy Rollins. He had a statistical down year and was riddled with injuries, and he is the spark to that offense that did hit some peaks and valleys last year.

NL Central- St. Louis Cardinals (90-72)

There is a legitimate 3 team race in the Central and I am one of the few believers that Lance Berkman is going to have a bounce back year. Carpenter in a Contract Year, Pujols in a contract year, and Wainwright just being an animal? Yup you had me at "Play Ball". Cincinnatti I am anticipating taking a BIG step back this year, I think Rolen is not going to be as productive as he was last year, Renteria is a shell of himself, and while their pitching is solid I don't think their offense will be as potent as last year.

NL West- Los Angeles Dodgers (92-70)

What was the biggest problem with the Dodgers last year? Their pitching was garbage. They have fixed that in a BIG way. Their rotation has depth with Garland and Padilla vying for the 5^th spot, Kershaw, Billingsley and Lilly as a top 3 is reliable as long as Billingsley stays healthy. They have depth at most of the positions and Uribe is going to pay dividends for them in the playoffs. They also sured up their bullpen which was in shambles last year. X-Factor is Jonathan Broxton and the health of Chad Billingsley. Broxton had the closers job yanked from him, so he's going to need to step up. Billingsley's health is essential for their success. He is dominant at times but hopefully he comes into spring training in shape and ready to dominate.

NL Wild Card- Milwaukee Brewers (88-74)

They are clearly in "win-now" mode, Prince in a contract year. Zack Greinke, Yovanni Gallardo, and Shawn Marcum is a great triumvirate of pitching. Their bullpen is a question mark for me, but I think they do enough to get in the post season. I'd like to see Prince in the post season one more time to jack up the price for his free agent year. X-Factor is their bullpen. If their bullpen is solid I think their offense is very good.

Let me know what you think, I'd love to give more of an argument for any of my picks.

Stay Tuned

Ryan

The BBWAA is a J-O-K-E

Yup, now you've done it. I done, just got pissed off. Jeff Bagwell, whose stats are INARGUABLY Hall of Fame worthy was just left off the ballot for absolutely no reason. He got a paltry 41.7% of the votes. Less than half. This is an absolute outrage. Here are his numbers along with his most comparable offensive players:

Sim Player From To Yrs G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG SB CS OPS+

Jeff Bagwell 1991-2005 15 2150 7797 1517 2314 488 32 449 1529 1401 1558 .297 .408 .540 202 78 149

887 Chipper Jones
1993-2010 17 2261 8142 1505 2490 493 37 436 1491 1404 1278 .306 .405 .536 147 44 142

879 Carlos Delgado
1993-2009 17 2035 7283 1241 2038 483 18 473 1512 1109 1745 .280 .383 .546 14 8 138

874 Frank Thomas 1990-2008 19 2322 8199 1494 2468 495 12 521 1704 1667 1397 .301 .419 .555 32 23 156

865 Fred McGriff 1986-2004 19 2460 8757 1349 2490 441 24 493 1550 1305 1882 .284 .377 .509 72 38 134

844 Andres Galarraga 1985-2004 19 2257 8096 1195 2333 444 32 399 1425 583 2003 .288 .347 .499 128 81 118

843* Willie Stargell 1962-1982 21 2360 7927 1195 2232 423 55 475 1540 937 1936 .282 .360 .529 17 16 147

832 Vladimir Guerrero
1996-2010 15 2002 7593 1268 2427 447 45 436 1433 720 929 .320 .383 .563 179 92 143

825* Orlando Cepeda 1958-1974 17 2124 7927 1131 2351 417 27 379 1365 588 1169 .297 .350 .499 142 80 133

820 Jason Giambi
1995-2010 16 2039 6801 1176 1914 385 9 415 1365 1297 1435 .281 .405 .524 20 11 142

817 Jim Thome
1991-2010 20 2392 7982 1534 2216 428 26 589 1624 1679 2395 .278 .404 .559 19 20 147

*denotes Hall of Famer

First off if 20% of your comparable players are Hall of Famers chances are you are as well. Also Chipper Jones, Vladimir Guerrero and Jim Thome are all SURE FIRE HOFers as well so you're looking at 50% of your closest comparisons are in the Mecca of all baseball. Not to mention fringe HOFers like Frank Thomas (should be elected), Fred McGriff (not in my opinion), and Carlos Delgado (should fall just short). Going by a strictly stats based argument, Bagwell bests or equals Orlando Cepeda and Willie Stargell in just about every offensive category, and it should be noted in 2 fewer seasons (Cepeda) and 6 fewer seasons (Stargell). Oh weird that little * denotes a Hall of Famer…strange.

Newsflash to everyone baseball had an era known as the Steroid Era. *shudders uncontrollably*

Newsflash to everyone people played baseball in this era as well.

There are players such as Barry Bonds, Rafael Palmeiro, Roger Clemens, Manny Ramirez and many others that played during this era all with Hall of Fame caliber numbers, but here's the difference between those players and Jeff Bagwell: They were all tied in one way or another to performance enhancing drugs, while He was not. And now by some forgone conclusion with the Baseball Writers Association of America they are going to play judge and assume each player is guilty until proven innocent. Well that's a crock of shit, and by this logic NO ONE IN THIS ERA WILL GET VOTED IN FIRST BALLOT.

That Means:

Pedro Martinez, the most dominating pitcher through the Steroid Era is in fact a fraud and does not deserve to get in based on when he played.

Derek Jeter, the posterboy for everything good in baseball doesn't get in despite obtaining just about every Yankee record and leading them to multiple World Championships because he played when BSB was a hot commodity.

Randy Johnson, the most intimidating pitcher, 300 game winner and arguably best lefty of a decade gets left out.

Smoltz, Glavine, and Maddux? Nope

Albert Pujols? Definitely not.

Do you see what these malignants are doing? How can someone be guilty with vehement denials, no evidence pointing at him and no failed drug tests? Simple: he's not and his career is getting martyred because of some people's ignorance. "Look at me, I wrote about baseball for 10 years, therefore I know all and whatever decision I make is therefore the right decision."

That's the criteria to be able to vote for the Hall of Fame, is to have written about baseball for 10 years in a newspaper or some sort of mass media outlet.

Somehow because he was a power hitting first baseman when Boyz II Men was on your cassette player, he is all of a sudden guilty of cheating with no evidence against him. I think this is horseshit and would love to hear any BBWAA member's defense against not voting for him. Here is what the BBWAA judges for criteria:

Voting shall be based upon the player's record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played.

Playing ability: Top Notch (ranked as the 4^th best First baseman OF ALL TIME by renowned baseball statistician Bill James in 2001's "New Historical Baseball Abstract")

Integrity: Never in any scandals (steroids, performance enhancers, or cheating of any kind)

Sportsmanship: Always one of the most respected players by managers and players in era.

Character/ contributions: Started a charity in the only city he ever played (15 years in Houston) called Rapid Rehousing to combat homelessness.

OK That's not enough for you, and you're looking for the "black ink" on his resume, or the awards, here ya go.

Highlights

• NL MVP: 1994
  
• NL Rookie of the Year: 1991
  
• NL All-Star: 1994, 1996, 1997, 1999
  
• Gold Glove Award (1B): 1994
  
• Silver Slugger Awards (1B): 1994, 1997, 1999
  
• Houston Astros Career Leader in Home Runs (449), RBI (1,529), Walks (1,401), Runs Created (1,715), Sacrifice Flies (102) and Intentional Walks (155).
  
• Holds Houston Astros single season records for Batting Average (.368 in 1994), On-base percentage (.454 in 1999), Slugging Percentage (.750 in 1994), OPS (1.201 in 1994), Runs (152 in 2000), Total Bases (363 in 2000), Home Runs (47 in 2000), Walks (149 in 1999), Times on Base (331 in 1999), Intentional Walks (27 in 1997) and At Bats per Home Run (10.3 in 1994)
  
• Baseball statistician Bill James, in his New Historical Baseball Abstract, listed Bagwell as the fourth best first baseman of all time.
  

I would also suggest you read that clip I put in above about denying steroid use because he talks about working out all the time and when his trainer's told him to stop doing different lifts because it would hinder his flexibility and elasticity in his arm he didn't listen to them. So he worked out and tried to get better naturally and not through a syringe and he is getting penalized for what, working too hard? If you're the BBWAA is this sort of saying, "I want you to be a good player, but not too good, or else I'll personally knock you down a peg".

Simply put, this was one of the good guys in this sport and you just gave him the big F You, I hope you feel good about yourself because I didn't even get the HONOR of voting and I feel like someone just ran over my dog, backed up and ran over it again. I can only imagine how BagPipes and his family feel on what should have been a momentous day. This is a travesty of gargantuan proportions and the Writers should be ashamed of themselves.

Stay Tuned

Ryan

Tradelbon

"Oh my god we're back again" By now I'm sure you've heard that the Red Sox signed Bobby Jenks to a 2-year 12 million dollar deal. First off, I LOVE THIS MOVE. But then I thought this guy has been a closer his entire career. He closed 27 of 31 last year; he throws strikes like you read about, and has a ground ball rate greater than 50%. So what is he doing signing with the Boston Red Sox, when the Sox have all-world, tougher than nails, wants to set the market for closers, Jonathan Papelbon? *rolls eyes*

This means one of two things. The first thing this could mean that Theo has compiled an onslaught of power arms for the 7^th, 8^th and 9^th innings and that he is prepared to let Papelbon walk after 2011. If it is in fact the stable of laser, rocket arms; this is exactly how you build a bullpen. ( Reliable Closer, Long man, one lefty, and 2-3 power arms.) This is also "closer insurance" if Papelbon gets hurt during the year and when (not if) Papelbon leaves after 2011. I refuse to believe that Jenks signed here without ever having the possibility of closing, when he could have signed with the Rays, potentially the Rangers if they wanted to move Feliz to the rotation, or a handful of other clubs that needed a closer.

The second thing this could mean is that Papelbon is on the block. Jon Heyman reported earlier that he keeps hearing rumblings involving Papelbon's name. I don't know what you get for someone in his situation (a 5^th year arbitration case, who intends to be the highest paid closer) but if they do then this is exactly what I thought they'd do, BLOW UP THIS PEN. They've already gotten rid of Ram-Ram, Delcarmen, and Okajima. Papelbon would be the last of the bunch. As a group last year they walked so many batters that it was almost impossible to win ballgames and a wonder they won as many as they did. What they're doing now is signing guys that challenge hitters and put the ball over the plate. Because as we know, you can't defend the walk.

Going back to what I said earlier about how you build a bullpen let's look at what they have out there.

Reliable Closer- Say what you want about my use of the word reliable, but despite Papelbon's decline in velocity, and uptick in walks, ERA and WHIP he has been one of the top 5 closers in baseball the last 5 years.

Long Reliever- Tim Wakefield, I wish he'd just retire but I suppose he's good for one more year knowing he is the mop up/spot start guy and gets rid of that my shit don't stink entitlement attitude.

Lefty- This is Felix Doubront's spot to lose but when the Sox re-sign Rich Hill he could give him a run for his money being more familiar with the Reliever position and the act that Doubront has options left.

Power Arms- Off the top of my head I can't think of a better Set-Up man than Daniel Bard so he's the only non question mark in the bunch

     Bobby Jenks could be one of the best signing in recent memory if he takes to the set-up roll/ 7^th inning slot but after a down year he isn't a sure thing

     Matt Albers can throw the shit out of the ball but has been pretty inconsistent thus far in his career this is a make or break year for him as far as turning "stuff" into stats.

According to sources the Sox just reached a deal with Andrew Miller who will compete with Albers and/or Doubront for the final spot in the bullpen, but a lefty that throws 96, if the Sox can get him to be more consistent in the zone he's absolutely going to be a weapon, think Matt Thornton.

I'll give my prediction as to what I think will actually happen in just a second, but let's look at who the potential trade suitors could be.

Los Angeles Dodgers- The Dodgers couldn't figure out Jonathan Broxton last year and wonder if they'd invest in a different closer with their McCourt Divorce finally coming to a close. A Papelbon for Broxton swap with maybe the sox throwing in some Cash considerations? I don't think that's out of the question.

Texas Rangers- They have been talking about getting Neftali Feliz's wing in the starting rotation and if they don't get another starter I wonder if Papelbon to Texas maybe for like Michael Young or someone like that and then Young plays short, which would then require a Scutaro trade. Michael Young makes about 16 mil annually but is also on the hook for next year too, that would take some tweaking as far as money.

St. Louis Cardinals- Once again there would have to be some configuring with money because I don't think there is a bad contract that they have the Sox would want to take on, but the Cardinals closer Ryan Franklin said he wants to retire after his contract.

Atlanta Braves- This would be out of character for them but with Billy Wagner retiring and Takashi Saito being horrible, they may want to think about it, and Papelbon dominates the NL.

 

If I had to venture a guess I say Papelbon will still be a Red Sox come Spring Training because the Red Sox may subscribe to the contract year theory with regards to his upcoming performance. But this new addition to the bullpen is another great piece to what looks to be a promising 2011.

Stay Tuned

Ryan